Compiled October 1950 Issued November 1950 ADVANCE ESTIMATES OF PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS FOR THE SCHOOL YEAR 1950-51 Prepared by Research Division, National Education Association of the United States OR THE NATION AS A WHOLE the Γ school year 1950-51 will be a period of slow improvement be- cause of the effect of many conflict- ing pressures, The constructive forces which began in 1947 to correct prewar neglect and wartime losses continue to increase school revenues but new eco- nomic and worldwide factors have off- set many gains, Rising prices reduce the value of the school dollar, tax and price trends adversely affect the teacher's economic status, competition for manpower restricts teacher supply, higher prices and restraints upon build- ing materials produce a lag in needed school construction, and increasing en- rolments complicate the problems of fi- nance, teacher personnel, and school- housing. Affecting all of those condi- tions are the uncertainties as to the manpower requirements of Selective Serv- ice, the rising cost of military prepa- rations, the continuous threat of world war, and the "tightening" of local, state, and federal tax sources, THIS SUMMARY is based upon infor- mation supplied by state and territori- al departments of education and educa- tion associations. It is the ninth in a series of national estimates begun in 1942-43 o Most of the figures in this memo- randum are estimates. They are based upon statistics of previous years ad- Justed by expert Judgment and by refer- ence to such preliminary figures as are available. Many states have not com- pleted their statistical summaries of the school year 1949-50, and few have preliminary data for 1950-51. Previous experience with this se- ries of advance summaries indicates that the present report is a reason- ably accurate statement of conditions in publie education as of October 1950, Elaborate statistical manipulations of these figures, beyond those given here- in, are not advisable, The present report reflects some of these conditions in terms of general state- wide statistics. It does not reveal the unusually good or very depressing school con- ditions which exist in many local districts, - The Outlook in Continental United States The first part of this memorandum briefly summarizes Tables The second section and Table 10 give a brief review pended to the end of the report, of conditions in the territories and outlying areas, l thru 9 which are ap- Substandard certificates--All of the states (except Massachusetts and the District of Columbia) issue certificates or credentials to individuals prior to their employment as teachers in publie schools. scribed programs of professional preparation. Most states have standard certificates based upon pre- Before World War II and especially dur- ing the war years those not fully qualified for standard certification were given "emer- gency" or "temporary" certificates, The number of these substandard certificates in use in a given year is one measure of the shortage of qualified teachers. sx Needed supply--In 1949 state education authorities were asked to estimate the num- ber of additional teachers needed "to reduce teacher load and to provide adequately for increasing enrolments." The estimated total of so-called "needed supply" was 35,534 in 1949; the comparable estimate for 1950 is 36,988. These estimated needs are in addition to';those:untrainéd teachers: among the emer-.- gency teachers who should be replaced. No one knows how many of the nearly 80,000 holders of substandard certificates are so poorly qualified that they should be re- placed. In a number of states inservice training programs and required summer-school attendance during the past few years have helped many temporary teachers to qualify for full certification, Also it must be kept in mind that &cceptable professional standards of teacher preparation vary considerably among the states, If it is assumed that 50 percent of the temporary teachers should be replaced, then the minimum annual demand for new qualified teachers must be about 100,000, The potential annual need for new qualified teachers for both elementary and secondary pyblic schools probably approximates 125,000. Teacher education--Further evidence on the teacher supply and demand situation is available from estimates of teacher-training enrolments in 1950-51 as compared with those in 1940-41. The details on individual states are given in Table 8, column 8, The general national picture for 1950-51, compared with several earlier years, may be summarized as follows: Number of states reporting current enrolments as School year Much smaller About same Much larger than 1940-41 as 1940-41 than 1940-41 1947-48... ... sese 18 9 21 1948-49... e ooo ooo 9 14 25 1949=50.cccccccvce 2 12 3h 1950-251... 69s 5 11 32 During these years the shift of states from the "much smaller" to the "much larger" column has indicated an improved outlook for teacher supply. Undoubtedly this change has partly accounted for the decrease in emergency certificated teachers (Table 2) despite an increased number of teaching positions (Table 1) and the increas- ing elementary- and secondary-school enrolments (Table 7). The slight drop this year in the proportion of states with the "same" or "much larger" enrolments may have been caused by (a) a decline in World War II veterans en- rolled in teachers colleges, (b) the diverting of young men and women from college to employment to meet current manpower demands, and (c) the effect of Selective Service and other manpower demands of military agencies, In an effort to anticipate the situation in the next few years state officials were asked to estimate how well the 1950-51 enrolments would meet the probable demand for new teachers in the next three years, The replies for the individual states are given in columns 9 and 10 of Table 8. As compared with similar estimates in 1949-50 the 1950-51 replies may be summarized as follows: Number of states expecting supply in the next three years To be short To be balanced Το be an oversuppl Type of teacher 1949-50 1950-51 1949-50 1950-51 1949-50 1950-51 Elementary teachers...... 38 37 10 11 ο 0 Secondary teachers....... 1 3 30 22 17 23 25x The foregoing figures indicate some improvement in the past year in the school building situation in rural areas, but three-fourths of the states still report "con- siderable" or "very large" shortages. Urban areas show little decrease in the pro- portion of states reporting a shortage of elementary-school buildings. The secondary- school building situation án urban districts seems slightly improved. At the same time three-fourths of the states still report extensive building shortages in city-school systems, It is necessary to repeat the 1949 warning that a continuation of a shortage in high-school buildings spells trouble in the years ahead. Between 1953 and 1955 the enrolment problems, existing today in many elementary schools because of high birth rates in the early 1940's, will have reached the high schools. These difficulties, combined with the present enrolment problems caused by population mobility, will mean that many high-school students cannot have full-time school opportunities, Pupil enrolments--In 1939-40, according to the U. S. Office of Education, the pub- lic elementary and secondary schools enrolled 25,433,542 pupils--18,832,098 in elemen- tary schools and 6,601,444 in secondary schools. During the World War II years each level lost approximately one million pupils, or a total loss of two million. These total enrolment figures obtained from the states at the end of each school year include some duplicates. The present series of memorandums has reported the following enrolments in recent years: Year Elementary Secondary Total 1946-7... 2... sooo ao 0h] 92995 565 6,560,306 23,759,871 1947-48... 5.22555 225.1750600,000 6,501,300 24,101,300 1948-49... 5555555 55555175858, 913 6,804,170 21,653,383 1949-50. 0000000000000 .18,528, 539 6,464, 58h 24,993,123 The revised enrolment for 1949-50, as reported in October 1950, is 25,185,436, This figure probably contains some duplicates which explains in part the increase over the 24,993,123 reported in Óctober 1949. The NEA Research Division's 1950-51 estimated enrolment for the 48 states and the District of Columbia is 25,120,097--18,950,582 in elementary schools and 6,779,515 in Secondary schools. The total enrolment figures are more reliable than those designated as "elemen- tary" and "secondary" taken separately. This condition arises from differences of opinion and practice in reporting Grades VII and VIII which are considered as elemen- tary or secondary, depending upon the pattern of school organization in local districts. The summarized figures for 1950-51 (see Table 7 for state estimates) are not the same as the recent estimates of the U, S, Office of Education. -In the May 1950 issue of School Life the Office presents the following estimates: Year Elementary Secondary Total ç1949=50. so 0000000908 ooo 20,006,000 5,585,000 25,591,000 1950-51. 9900000000000-00 020,780,000 55479,000 26,259,000 1951=52eccccrccccccccccdl shah ,000 5,483,000 26,907,000 In September 1950 an Office of Education press release predicted the public-school enrolment for 1950-51 as totaling 26,126,000--20,674,000 in elementary schools and 5,452,000 in secondary schools, -7- But the rate of gain has been checked by price increases of the past year. The in- crease in real wages over a year ago has been only about $15, and that may soon be wiped out by still higher prices. In comparison with earnings in other occupations, the school personnel have defi- nitely lost ground during the past decade of war and readjustment. In 1939 the average salary of the instructional personnel was about $150 more than the average annual earn- ings of all employed persons. During the war years the salaries of school personnel fell far below employed persons in general. Since 1945 there has been some improve- ment and by 1949 the instructional personnel had about reached the average of all em- ployed persons, If trends had continued, teachers might have moved forward to some- thing approaching their prewar position, but earnings in industry have taken another recent upward turn that has not been matched by school salaries, To restore instructional salaries to their prewar status in relation to earnings in general; the current average salary would not be the present estimated $3080, but would be well above $3400. It is estimated (Table 5) that 5 percent of the classroom teachers (or more than 45,000 teachers) are being paid less than $1500 for their services in the school year 1950- 51 ο School expenditures--For the first time in this series of nationwide summaries this year’s inquiry included questions on total current expenditures from local and state funds, expenditures per pupil in average daily attendance, and the percent of current revenues from state sources (see Table 6). For 1949-50 it is estimated that the 48 states and the District of Columbia ex- pended for current costs (less capital outlay and interest) of public schools a total of $4,,92,423,418. The estimated expenditure for 1950-51 is placed at $4,784,434,170-- an increase of about $292,000,000 over the previous school year, For the nation as a whole estimated expenditures per pupil in average daily at- tendance averaged $204.50 in 1949-50 and $213 in 1950-51, The distribution of the 48 states and the District of Columbia is as follows: ad E Amount 1949-50 - 1950-51 Under $100....... 5.252 2 1 100-149.. saos0s000000 7 8 150-199.. ssooaoooo000a — lÀ 10 200= 249 μμ”... 21 20 250-299... ου ωοοος σσ οσο 5 9 300 and over.......... Ὁ cL 49 49 The estimated average expenditure of $213 per pupil in average daily attendance is about a 4=percent increase over the $204.50 of 1949-50. It is approximately a 15- percent increase over the $185 reported in 1947-48 by the U. S. Office of Education. The Office's figure included a small percent of federal aid omitted from the $213 estimate for 1950-51. The purchasing power of the $213 in 1935-1939 dollars is about $122. The expendi- ture per pupil in average daily attendance was $88 in 1939-40 (when the consumer's price index was about 100). Therefore, the per-pupil expenditure this year will be a real gain of about $34 in purchasi ower over the prewar period, definitely a less effective gain than the $125 difference between $213 and $88. d TABLE l.--ESTIMATED NUMBER OF CLASSROOM TEACHERS, PRINCIPALS, AND SUPERVISORS IN PUBLIC ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS, 1949-50 AND 1950-51 [460 1949-50 1950-51 Elemene, Second- Princi- Total Elemen- Second- Princi- Total State tary( 1) ary(!> pals, (js ) tary ary pals, teachers teachérs etc, teachers teachers etc L 2 Alas. sore *13,100 *8,300 * *22; 139500 *8,500 3*600 #22 ,000 Ariz *3,650 1,100 31300 35,050 *3,700 *41,120 #300 *5,120 Ark. 9ο 8,180 4,725 395 15,300 8,330 4,725. 395 13,450 Calif 35,115 22,866 6,191 64,172 37,500 23,500 6,200 67,200 Colo. soo 6,602 2,401 802 9,805 6,760 2,460 820 10,040 Conn. 6,967 3,682 1,011 11,660 7,894 3,607 1,042 12,453 Del. .... 952 879 134 1,965 1,000 900 140 2,040 D.C. 1,663 1,667 197 3,527 1,738 1,653 205 3,596 Fla. 9,764 7,020 936 17,720 10,410 7,484 950 18,844 Gas) Roue 16,900 7,350 510 24,760 17,000 7,400 500 24,900 Idaho 2,987 1,486 356 4,829 3,180 1,540 340 5,060 I11. 30,600 13,600 2,600 46,800 31,200 13,600 2,500 47,200 Ind. .... *12,500 711,000 *1,500 25,000 *12,800 311,100 51,500 3125, 400 Iowa *13,750 37,650 931,600 23,000 *13,920 3*7,720 31,600 #23240 Kans. ... 9,000 6,300 1,500 16,800 9,100 6,350 1,500 16,950 Kyo «οσους 12,929 5,250 850 19,029 13,100 5,421 850 19,371 La, oo 11,506 4,720 2,975 19,201 *12,120 34,900 *2,980 320,000 Maine ο. A; 449 2,069 180 6,698 ἐν 800 2,070 180 7,050 Md. scove 6,368 4,814 703 11,885 6,638 5,247 Τιμ, 12,729 Mass 13,934 9,700 1,210 24,814, *14,000 39,700 *1,210 *24,910 Mich. 22,729 14,391 1,650 38,770 24,000 15,000 1,750 40,750 Minn. ... 12,000 7,926 701 20,627 12,300 8,100 700 21,100 Miss. ... 11,044 4,583 598 16,225 11,300 4, 600 610 16,510 Mo. wassa 16,449 6,017 1,478 23,97 16,500 6,050 1,500 24,050 Mont, ου 3,592 917 523 5,032 3,610 962 526 5,098 Nebr. 8,598 3,219 328 12,145 8,580 3,220 330 12,130 Nev. .... 785 314 147 1,246 830 322 150 1,302 N.H, 1,749 1,141 160 3,050 1,785 1,150 165 3,100 Noda o 18,449 10,127 1,250 29,826 *18,925 *10,300 1,275 30, 500 Ν. Mex 3,583 1,325 1553 5,461 3,600 1,335 560 55495 N.Y. ο 49,800 25,700 3,900 79 5400 50,800 26,000 3,950 80,750 Ν.Ο. 20,646 6,771 1,637 29,051, 21,200 7,000 1,700 29,900 N.Dak, ο 4,800 1,200 400 6,400 4,800 1,175 400 6,375 Ohio 235709 17,556 1,031 45,299 24,150 17,500 4,034 45,684 Okla, 9, 8h4 6,086 2,249 18,179 10,000 ο 2,300 19,014 Oreg. 7 ,000 3,000 850 10,850 7,500 3,150 850 11,500 Pa. ουουο 315371 24,076 5,214 60,661 31,682 24,260 5,219 61,161 Rolo ο... «1,985 91,676 3230 3,891 *2,000 1,720 *230 3,950 SoCo sooo. 12,120 4,631 192 16,943 12,500 4,7700 200 17,400 S.Dak, 5,018 1,404 300 6,722 5,059 1,427 300 6,786 Tenn. ooo 16,250 5,356 600 22,196 16,600 5440 600 22, 640 Texas ο. 32,222 17,406 3,621 53,249 33,222 17,606 3,621 54,449 Utah . *2,650 #2,225 #250 5,125 #2,700 — *2,250 *250 3*5, 200 VEG aiu 1,770 649 183 2,602 1,810 660 180 2,650 Va. o 12,336 6,719 2,319 21,374 12,800 7,100 30. 22,240 Wash, 10,188 4,592 1,302 16,082 10,900 4,675 1,325 16,900 W.Vas ooo 8,963 5,211 1,856. 16,030 9,000 5,400 1,900 16,300 Wis. ο 14,000 6,440 520 20,960 14,300 6,450. 520 21,270 WYO. οοοο 20 Average 1,710 906 111 2.127 1,720 9 T 2.755 586,276 318,163 61,70 966,145 15 989,302 602,863 321,283 τν ανν 299,