RESEARCH BULLETIN OF THEE NATIONAL VOL. XVI * No. 1 EDUCATION JANUARY * 1938 ASSOCIATION Population Trends and Their Educational Implications Published by the RESEARCH DIVISION of the NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION 1201 Sixteenth Street, N. W., Washington, D. C. RESEARCH BULLETIN or tne Published five times each year in January, March, May, September, and November President, CAROLINE S. WOODRUFF NATIONAL EDUCATION ASSOCIATION Executive Secretary, WILLARD E. GIVENS Director of Research: William G. Carr; Associate Director: Frank W. Hubbard Assistant Directors: Richard R. Foster, lvan A. Booker, Hazel Davis Research Assistants and Section Heads: Frances G. Bradley, Louise B. Sease, Helen H. Cox, Anna Haddow, Madaline K. Remmlzin, Ruth Shirley, Mildred Wharton, and Vera D. Vinogradoff Executive and Editorial Offices 1201 Sixteenth Street, N. W., Washington, D. C. Copyright, 1938, by the National Education Association of the United States Entered as second-class matter February 10, 1923, at the Post Office at Washington, D. C., under Act of August 24, 1912. Acceptance for mailing at special rate of postage provided for in Section 1103, Act of October 3, 1917, authorized February 10, 1923. Subscriptions The payment of the $5 membership fee of the National Education Association entitles one to receive for one year the Research Bulletin, the Journal, the An- nual Volume of Addresses and Proceed- ings, and certain other publications of the Association. One dollar of each $5 mem- bership fee is for a year’s subscription to the Research Bulletin. The Research Bulletin may be received regularly thru a special subscription at $1 per year. Many of the early issues of the Research Bulletin are already out of print. The special subscription at $1 per year offers an opportunity to maintain a complete file of future Research Bulletins. 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In other cases appli- cation for the release of materials is re- quired. Address communications to the Research Division, National Education As- sociation, 1201 Sixteenth Street, N. W., Washington, D. C. CONTENTS FoREWORD Part I. TrReENDs IN PoPULATION CHANGES Summary of Part I Growth in Population Aggregate Growth Birth-Rates, Death-Rates, and Rates of Natural Increase Immigration Internal Movement of Population Rural and Urban Shiftings Regional Changes Changes in Composition of the Population Age Distribution and Trends Sex Ratios and Marital Conditions Occupational Shifts Health Conditions and Physical and Mental Disabilities Problems Arising from Population Changes Age and Stability of Population Social-Economic Status of Population Population Distribution Occupational Adjustment Part II. EpucaTIoNnaL IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION TRENDS Summary of Part II Trends in School Population Elementary Schools Secondary Schools Colleges and Universities Methods and Curriculum Guidance ..... School Building Programs The Education of Teachers Adult Education Urban Education Rural Education Tax Resources and School Finance Public Relations of the Schools APPENDIX Statistical Tables Prepared for the Educational Policies Commission by the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems Sources of Information for the Figures List of Pictorial Figures aN ons This report has been issued both as an N.E.A. Research Bulletin entitled “Population Trends and Their Educational Implications” and as a special publication of the Educational Policies Commission under the title “The Effect of Population Changes on American Education.” [3] FOREWORD OR THOSE WHO COULD SENSE imminent social change, the Census of 1930 announced an important event. In that year, for the first time in our history, a federal census recorded fewer children under five years of age than from five to nine years of age. Previous censuses, decade after decade, had recorded without exception a larger number of persons in any specified age group than in the next older age group. That record of population growth was broken in 1930. The schools are among the very first of the social institutions to feel the effects of population changes. Change in birth-rate is quickly reflected in school enrolments. Immigration affects the need for Americanization classes. The distribution of population is important in deciding upon the location and type of school buildings. If the distribution of children is different from the distri- bution of wealth, problems of equalizing educational opportunity arise. Edu- cational leadership must therefore make a continuous study of the people which it serves. Changes in the number, location, and characteristics of the people to be served are crucial in the development of educational policies. For these reasons the Educational Policies Commission has been interested in studies of the changes which are imminent, or already occurring, in the population of the United States. This bulletin, a joint undertaking with the Research Division of the National Education Association, gives the major facts for the country as a whole and suggests some of the lines of educational policy which seem appropriate and necessary. A review of the educational problems involved in a changing population should be helpful in several ways. Its greatest value should be in providing indications of the factors which may affect any local community to a greater or lesser degree. This bulletin is national and regional in scope and the trends revealed do not apply to every local community. However, these national figures should provoke certain questions for each school, community, and state. Is the total population or the school population decreasing or increasing in our community ? What do such trends imply for the preparation and assignment of teachers? How will population changes affect the planning, utilization, and location of school buildings? What effects is a decline in school popu- lation likely to have on total school expenditures and on the distribution of expenditures at the different levels? What opportunities for the improvement and expansion of educational services are offered? These and many other questions will require careful study in states and localities. Population move- ments and the forces activating them should be understood by those who would plan for the schools in the future—even the near future—for momentous and complex changes in the population are even now occurring. For assistance in the preparation of this bulletin special acknowledgment is made to Dr. Frank Lorimer, Population Association of America, and to Dr. Rudolf Modley, Pictorial Statistics, Inc., New York, N. Y. A. J. Sropparp, Chairman, Educational Policies Commission. [4] PART I. TRENDS IN POPULATION CHANGES Summary of Part I Part I of this bulletin presents data on trends in such aspects of population as growth, inter nal movement and composition, and the outlook on problems arising from these trends. Part II deals with the educational implications of these conditions. For the convenience of the reader a brief summary of the principal conclusions of Part I is given here. From the data briefly presented in the fol- lowing sections it is evident that the population of the United States has undergone significant basic changes since the turn of the twentieth cen- tury. These changes may be summarized in five trends which are peculiarly important to those groups in our country which have as their pur- pose the formulation and execution of social objectives. The first of these trends is a definite slowing down of population growth. Restricted immi- gration has drastically curtailed replenishment of our population from foreign countries. A declining birth-rate has so affected our rate of natural increase that there are actually not enough children to replace the older popula- tion. With the blocking of the only two sources of population, the nation faces stabilization or decline of its numbers. A widening difference between the rates of natural increase for certain groups ts a second significant population trend. Rural-farm areas are providing more than their share of new population. The prevalence of voluntary fam- ily limitation among many urban groups pos- sessed of relatively high standards of living, general literacy, and conformity to the culture patterns of modern urban life contributes to a low fertility rate in these groups. Thus, to a great extent, it is the natural increase from the rural-farm areas that is replenishing the urban population which is not replacing itself. A third trend is the steady rise in the aver- age age of the population. Since 1820 the average age of the population has risen from seventeen to twenty-seven years. There is a steady decline in the proportion of persons under twenty years of age with a corresponding increase in the proportion over forty-five. In the most productive age group, twenty to forty- four years, there is little change in proportion i but, with young adults of this age no longer im migrating from outside, the character of this age group is being altered. In spite of the fact that ignorance, indifference, and poverty still keep illness rates and the proportion of the popula tion that is mentally and physically handi capped at unnecessarily high levels, great ad vances in the nation’s health have lowered mortality rates. Thus the expectation of life has been materially increased. The women ot the country as a whole are bearing fewer chil dren; but the infants have a better chance of surviving to maturity. New geographic concentrations of the popu lation, a fourth trend, are coming about thru a redistribution of people in relation to natural For many years the metropolitan region around New York, including Connecticut and New Jersey the Great Lakes states of Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois; and the Pacific Coast states of Wash and California resources and social institutions. ington, Oregon, have drawn large numbers of people from most of the states south of the Ohio and Potomac and east of the Rivers the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River. The eco Mississippi and between nomic depression forced an internal migration with emphasis on a search for subsistence se curity rather than greater economic opportu nity, restricting the steady migration from farms and producing a counter-movement fo farms in some regions. Because of the relatively high birth-rate and the great exodus of adults from the Southeast, that region has an un of persons under usually large proportion twenty years of age. The fifth significant population trend is the shift the productive and extractive occupations to the mechanical, man- in emphasis from agerial, professional, and service occupations. Tho the Northwest, Southeast, and Southwest are still largely agrarian, technological changes and unfortunate physical conditions such as soil erosion and drought have reduced the propor tion of their populations engaged in the extrac- tive occupations. In the Northeast the process has gone even further. Child labor legislation, meanwhile, has decreased the employment of 5 | young children, but women, both married and single, constitute an increasingly larger pro portion of the total population gainfully at work. Women, for the most part, are engaged in the mechanical, distributive, service, or pro- fessional occupations. In the productive indus- tries, machines are taking the place of man- pewer. Such displacement is producing changes in the lives of workers and their families. From work with the soil, natural resources, and raw materials the nation is turning to wo people, serving their wants, administeri: joint efforts, instructing them and helpi: to adjust to social change. In the midst shift of occupational emphasis, unemp is high and relief rolls are laden. These five basic population trends ducing subsequent conditions of profou nificance to education and other social tions. Growth in Population Aggregate Growth ' For more than one hundred and fifty years the growth of population in the United States has been an outstanding social phenomenon. From about four million persons in 1790 (the date of the first federal census) to a little less than one hundred and twenty-three million in 1930 is an aggregate increase of 3000 percent. This rapid growth was part of a worldwide trend associated with the growth of industrial- ism and other factors. In this country a scrutiny of the decennial rates of increase reveals a slow transition from an era of rapid growth toward an approaching period of stationary or perhaps even decreasing numbers. Up to 1860 each census showed an increase of about one- third over figures for the preceding decade; from 1860 to 1910 the decennial gain in popu- lation was around 20 or 25 percent ; for the last two census decades the gains have been only 15 or 16 percent; and for the period from 1930 to 1940 the increase seems likely to be not more than 7 or 8 percent. As for the constituent parts of the population of the United States—exclusive of outlying ter- ritories and possessions—the Census of 1930 showed 88.7 percent white, 9.7 percent Negro, and 1.6 percent Mexican and other races. Each decade since 1790, except the decade including the years of the World War, has shown, for the white population, a numerical increase greater than in the decade immediately preceding ; and the percent of increase for the white population has exceeded that for the Negro population in every decade since 1810. Adjusted figures fix the increase in the Negro population 1920 and 1930 at a higher rate than dur two preceding decades. For the same pe: increase in the white population of o1 percent is the lowest on record. The white people of the United Sta classified by census reports as fore; or native-born. Foreign-born whites ir from more than ten million in 1900 to 1 million in 1910, but have since shown no gain. Since 1913 there have been o: years, 1920 and 1923, when net imn was sufficiently large to offset the deaths eign-born whites and leave any significa plus. The proportion of native whites population increased from 74.2 percent to 77.8 percent in 1930—a little mo balancing the decrease from 14.3 pe 10.9 percent in the proportion of foreig whites. It appears from a further analysis trends that, in spite of the differing tr rate of growth of the various race or | groups during recent decades, the chan; relative importance of each group hav small. It is the slowing down of the ag. growth of the population that will pri nificant. Two factors, both expected t tinue, are considered by experts to be sible for this change—a declining birth-1 a reverse in the situation with respect to gration. The result of the working of th factors has been to reduce the average increase of the population to about 900, compared with about 1,700,000 betwee: and 1930. 1 Following section based upon: President’s Research Committee on Social Trends. Recent Social Trends in the Uni New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1933. Chapters 1 and 11. { U. S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Fifteenth of the United States, 1930: Population. Vol. 11. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 1933. Chapter 2, “Col Nativity, and Parentage.’’ { Hill, Joseph A. “Composition of the American Population by Race and Country of Origin the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188: 177-84; November 1936. { Truesdell, Leon E. ‘Population S American Year Book. New York: Doubleday, Doran and Co., March 1937. p. 540-45. (6] RE I FIGU Pea re an 6 oe seme FIGURE I JUHA_Na GROWTH OF POPULATION 2 NEGRO "NDIFO, NATIVE WHITE 1860 g n 00 oOo od0o 00 00 OF 900000 0 O 0 OO OFB Ba AE Oo © 60 Oo Oo 6 6 1910 1920 nn 090000 0 0 0 9 wien n wn en eine nih sents 4 million people. Each symbol repre n n FIGURE II CHILDREN UNDER FIVE YEARS PER 1000 WHITE WOMEN (20-44 YEARS O1p) 1800 1850 1880 1920 1930 Each child represents approximately 100 children. Nat. Edu [3] OLD) Assn ons Ace Birth-Rates, Death-Rates, and Rates of Natural Increase’? Tho it is a well-known fact that the national birth-rate has been declining, a rapidly decreas- ing death-rate occurring at the same time may obscure the full significance of the former. A study of the trends of these two rates will re- veal, to some extent, the trend of the natural increase in our population. Birth-rates—It is estimated that birth-rates in 1800 were about 3% times as high as in 1930. Even as late as 1880 the American peo- ple were twice as prolific as today. Moreover, at no time in the past does the decline in birth- rate seem to have been as rapid as from 1925-29 to 1930-34, when a drop of 16.8 percent took place. The crude birth-rate (live births per 1000 estimated population in the birth-regis- tration area of the United States) decreased from 25.1 in 1915 to 22.3 in 1919, rose to 24.2 in 1921 and then fell to an all-time low of 16.5 in 1933. The preliminary estimate for 1936 stands at 16.6. Crude birth-rates are misleading in consider- ing regional or racial differences in the United States. Children are born, for the most part, to women from twenty to forty-four years of age. Hence, a more accurate picture of the situa- tion can be obtained by comparing fertility rates for women of childbearing ages instead of birth-rates relative to total population. In this bulletin, a fertility rate will be understood as the number of children under five years of age per 1000 women aged twenty to forty-four years. The zone of states with low fertility rates extends from southern New England westward thru the states of the Middlewest and north of the Ohio River, until it reaches Kansas, Ne- braska, and Colorado. The Pacific Coast states and Florida complete the group. It is significant that all the highly urban and industrial states except Michigan are included. On the other hand, the agricultural regions of the Southeast and Southwest (south of the Potomac and Ohio Rivers and westward to the Rocky Mountains ) are regions of high fertility. In fact, the highest fertility rate in the United States is found in the Southern Appalachians. There is a clear ten dency toward leveling off these rates in areas of greatest concentration of population. The difference between rural and urban fer- tility has been pronounced since early in the nineteenth century. For instance, in 1820 the fertility rate for the white race in cities of 100,- 000 to 250,000 population was 827 compared with a rural rate of 1286. In 1910 the rate for cities of the same size was 409 as against a total rural ratio of 782. By 1930 the rate in this urban group had dropped to 384 while the rate for the rural had become 653. Thus, altho both rates declined markedly, the decrease in the urban fertility rate was the more rapid of the two. Factors contributing to the decreasing birth- rates and to the greater number of childless families in the nation are held to be later mar- riages, the employment of women outside the home, greater economic freedom of women, in- creasing knowledge and practise of birth con- trol, increasing standards and costs of living, and decreasing earning capacity of children. Death-rates—The prolongation of human life has always been looked upon as greatly to be desired and has been the goal of much public and private effort. Chiefly as a result of these endeavors death-rates have been lowered and the length of life increased correspondingly. There is no evidence that the maximum span of life (which is seldom more than 100 years) has been increasing, but only that a larger propor- tion of the population may live to a ripe old age. The rapid increase in expectation of life at birth during past decades has resulted from large re- ductions in death-rates of infants and young * Following section based upon: U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. “Provisional Summary of Natality Statistics for 1936.” Vital Statistics—Special Reports. Vol. 3, No. 24. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, June 16 1937. p. 123-29, (Advance pages.) { U. S. Department of Labor, Children’s Bureau. Trend of Birth Rates in United States Expand ing Birth-Registration Area by States, 1915-35. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, February 9, 1937. 1 p. 1 U. S. De partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. “Summary of Natality and Mortality Data for Each State—1935.” Vital Statistics Special Reports. Vol. 3, No. 3. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, February 4, 1937. p. 27-28. (Advance pages.) 1 U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. ‘“‘Growth of the Registration Areas.’’ Vital Statistics—Special Reports. Vol 3, No, 1. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, February 26, 1937. 1 p. (Advance.) { Lotka, Alfred J. ““Modern Trends in the Birth Rate.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188: 1-13; November 1936. Collinson, John “Death Rates.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188: 84-93; November 1936. { Odum, Howard W Southern Regions of the United States. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1936. Chapter 9. § National Education As sociation, Research Division. “‘Modern Social and Educational Trends.”” Research Bulletin 12: 243-87; November 1934. p. 249-51 1 President’s Research Committee on Social Trends. Recent Social Trends in the United States. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co. 1933. Chapter 1. § Lorimer, Frank, and Osborn, Frederick. Dynamics of Population. New York: Macmillan Co., 1934. Chapters | 2, and 3. § Stouffer, Samuel A., and Lazarsfelt, Paul F. Research Memorandum on the Family in the Depression. New York: Social Science Research Council (230 Park Ave.), 1937. Chapter 5. [9] ISW3HLNOS eee ss se A RAR RAR AANe 1SIMHLNOS rere r | 1samh Uy | Saar saivis 3100KW on 4, ae ae errr: ul = ) \ : aati enna | . A v \ } ISVW3HLYON \ CVO Ns ee en, | ae 9€61 ‘SNOID3IY Ad JSVWAYNI TWYNLYN TWLOL GNV NOILV1NdOd IWLOL JO NOILYOdOUd Ill aN Each man represents about 2 percent of totel population Each child represents shout 2 percent of total natural inc en eee Pecan = children, mortality at ages between ten and sixty having declined only slightly, and little if anv improvement having been made at ages over sixty. [he crude death-rate—the number of deaths ner 1000 estimated population—shows a fluc- ryating decrease from an estimated 19.8 in 1880 to 10.9 in 1935 thruout the death registration area. This decline was noticeably broken only once by the influenza epidemic and war deaths of 1918. The provisional rate for 1936, how- ever, stands at 11.5—an increase popularly attributed to a growing number of fatal acci- dents. During this whole period death rates for Negroes have been consistently higher than those for the white population. The states of the Far West and of the East- ern Seaboard have mortality rates slightly above the average, while the West Central states are considerably below the average. States with the lowest mortality rates, and consequently the longest expectation of life, are states with a relatively large rural population. The greater average longevity of the rural population is well known; it is usually attributed to the more healthful environment and work in the open country. However, the inequality of health services and the lack of health information for rural areas prevent the differential between rural and urban mortality rates from being as high as it might be. Rates of natural increase—Altho both the national birth-rate and the national death-rate are constantly declining, the margin between the number of births and the number of deaths each year is growing narrower and a lowering rate of natural increase is resulting. (For the purposes of this bulletin a rate of natural in- crease will be considered as the excess of births over deaths per 1000 estimated population. ) Between 1915 and 1936 the death-rate de- creased 2.1 points from 13.6 to 11.5. During the same period the birth-rate fell 8.5 points trom 25.1 to 16.6. The rate of natural increase therefore declined from 11.5 to 5.1, a drop of more than half for the twenty-one years. Fifty-five percent of the natural increase for the United States comes from three regions— Southeast, Southwest, and Northwest—that contain altogether only about one-third of the total population. Conversely, the Northeast, Middle States, and Far West, with two-thirds of the total population in 1930, accounted fo: only 45 percent of the total excess of births over deaths during the ensuing five years. Accession thru natural increase is now taking place about as rapidly in North Carolina as in the combined areas of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Con necticut, altho in 1930 the population of the latter states was more than twice as great as that of North Carolina. Without interstate mi gration, such differentials in natural increase would change greatly the present distribution of population within one or two generations. A significant condition is that relating to the relative replacement of certain groups in our population. In order to maintain a stable white population a replacement of about 9 children under five years of age for each 20 white women of ages twenty to forty-four is necessary. The rural non-farm areas (small towns) are just about meeting the replacement requirement, but urban sections are only producing 7 children to 20 women as against 14 children to 20 women for rural-farm areas. These regional variations in rates of natural increase and group differences in population re- placement seem all the more important when it is observed that the groups which are produc ing the greater proportion of our future popu lation thru excess of births over deaths are, in many cases, the less fortunate groups, economi- cally and culturally. Immigration The restriction of immigration in 1924 al- tered one of the most characteristic features of the earlier American scene. Migrants from European countries have come to the United States in waves of varying magnitude. The American people were long convinced that a rapidly increasing population was desirable, that immigrants were a contribution to prog- ress and prosperity, and that American tradition demanded that they be welcomed with open arms. After the earliest peaks in 1854 and the early seventies and eighties, a fairly low rate prevailed in the number of immigrants until 1905. Then, from that date until 1907, in 1910, * Following section based upon: President’s Research Committee on Social Trends. Recent Social Trends in the United States New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1933. Chapter 1. { Hill, Joseph A. “Composition of the American Pepulation by Race and Country of Origin.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 138: 177-84; November 1936. { Young, Donald Research Memorandum on Minority Peoples in the Depression. New York: Social Science Research Council (230 Park Ave Chapter 3. 1937 [11] IMMIGRATION, 1900-1934 -RRRARARR - RARRAARARARR - RARRARRRRAARA| 1919 RAK =: RA RRRAR and again in 1913-14, the number coming into the country annually exceeded one million about 1 percent of the population). During the War few people were admitted to the United States; but after the Armistice, immi- gration probably would have reached or ex- ceeded its old levels had it not been restricted by the quota laws. During the fiscal years 1922- 24 the maximum number of quota immigrants admissible was about 360,000 per year, but this was reduced to 160,000 on July 1, 1924, and to 150,000 on July 1, 1929. The only large countries remaining free from such restrictions are Mexico, Canada, and the independent coun- tries of Central and South America. An Executive Order of September 1930 in- structed consular officers to take into account depression conditions in application of the clause excluding persons likely to become a public charge. As a result of this policy, the number of immigrants entering this country during the past few years has been less than the number of emigrants leaving it. In the period 1931-35 the departures of immigrant aliens exceeded the arrivals by 103,654. The present trend in immigration depends on the course of economic recovery, on con- gressional action, and on other factors. The temper of the nation seems to favor severe restriction of admittances, and even the sur- mountal of depression conditions may not lead to a marked relaxation of such restrictions. Internal Movement of Population Rural and Urban Shiftings’* At the close of the Revolutionary War the United States had no town with as many as 50,000 inhabitants. In 1790, when the first census was taken, there were only six cities having a population of 8000 or more, contain- ing, in the aggregate, 3.3 percent of the total population of the country. In 1930 there were 1208 incorporated places having a population of 8000 or more, and their aggregate popula- tion represented 49.1 percent of the total. Since 1880 “urban” population has been counted as persons living in cities and other incorporated places having 2500 inhabitants or more. This classification thus considers as “rural” all pop- ulation living in villages of less than 2500 per- sons or in the open country. Urban population, so defined, increased from 28.6 percent of the total in 1880 to 56.2 percent in 1930, while rural population decreased from 71.4 percent of the total in 1880 to 43.8 percent in 1930. Factors of economic and social change for the past century and a half have contributed to the crowding of an increasing number and pro- 1 Following section based upon: U. 1930; Population. Vol. 11. Washington. D. C.: Government { Truesdell, Leon E. ‘‘Trends in Urban Population.” S. Departmert of Commerce, Bureau of the Census Printing Office, 1933 Municipal Year Book. Chicago 1937, p. 129-36. { Baker, O. E. “Rural and Urban Distribution of the Population in the United States.”’ Academy of Political and S cial Science 188: 264-79; November 1936 Depression Years. New York: Columbia University Press, 1937. portion of our people into relatively small areas. With the onset of the depression, migra- tion from farms was restricted but, contrary to popular impression, there was not a large general back-to-the-farm movement. In fact, according to estimates of the Bureau of Agri- cultural Economics, there were on the average a quarter million fewer migrants from towns and cities per year between 1930 and 1934 than between 1925 and 1929. Further estimates for 1936 indicate that 1,166,000 persons moved from farms to cities while 719,000 persons moved from cities to farms. This produced the first decrease in farm population since 1929 despite an excess of 716,000 farm births over 349,000 farm deaths during 1936. The lure of relief and work relief in urban centers, the cultural and recreation opportunities offered by cities, the mechanization of farms lessening the demand for hand labor, and the severity and length of droughts forced a decided away-from- the-farm migration in some sections despite the early depression movement to the land which seemed to offer greater subsistence security in times of urban unemployment. Fifteenth Census of the United States, Chapter 1 Urban and Rural International City Managers’ Association Annals of the American and Lorge, Irving. Rural Trends in Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Population { Brunner, Edmund deS., Chapter 3. 9 U. S Census. Farm Population (Summary by Divisions and States). United States Census of Agriculture, 1935. Washington, D. C.: the Bureau, 1936. 2 p. {U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census States). United States Census of Agriculture, 1935. Washington, D. C.: Frank. “Migration, Reproduction, and Population Adjustment.” 188: 280-89; November 1936. | Urbanism Committee of the National Resources Committee Annals oj the American Movement to Farms (Summary by Divisions and the Bureau, 1936. 2 p. 4 Dorn, Harold F., and Lorimer 4cademy of Political and Social Science Our Cities—Their Role in the National Economy. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 1937. p. 1-2. | Thompson, Warren S. Research Memorandum on Internal Migration in the Depression. New York: Social Science Research Council (230 Park Ave..) 1937. Chapter 2. § Ogburn, William F Social Characteristics of Cities. Chicago: International City Managers’ Association, 1937. 70 p {13 ] URBANIZATION OF POPULATION A, AAAKAA, .AAAAAAAA .AAAKAALALA) | . AAAAASAAAA LS | AAAAAAAAAAM 1820 70 Regional Changes \obility, which is rapidly increasing in seed and numbers involved, is one of the chief tracteristics of the American people. In ad ition to the striking rural-to-urban shiftings ist discussed, there have been significant re- vional shifts in population thru internal migra rion since early Colonial days. Until recently the chief currencs of move- ment were from east to west. First to the Appa- lachian and Allegheny Mountains, then across the Mississippi, and on to the far western coast trekked bands of hardy pioneers. The census reports of 1890 announced the disappearance of the frontier. The settling of Oklahoma be- tween 1890 and 1910 populated the last large vacant space in the interior. Then, except for the temporary resurgence of migration during the World War, sending thousands to plant wheat on the range land of the Great Plains, the major phases of the westward movement drew to a close. This event, according to James [ruslow Adams, marked “the most important change in direction in our history.”’ Meanwhile the new industrial economy drew large numbers of migrants to sections that had previously been areas of emigration. By 1900 New England and the Middle Atlantic states were attracting more people than they were losing. People in the cotton states of the South were going north rather than west. By 1930 the northeast states contained more than 3,000,000 persons who were born south of the Mason- Dixon Line and nearly 1,650,000 persons who were born west of the Mississippi River. Three areas attracted most of the migrants between 1920 and 1930, according to the 1930 Census. These were the New York metropol- tan region, including Connecticut and New Jersey; three Great Lakes states—Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois; and the Pacific Coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California. The population which poured into these sections was recruited largely from two main areas which showed net losses thru migration between 1920 and 1930. One of these areas includes the states south of the Ohio and Potomac and east * Following section based upon innals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science n Social Trends. Recent Social Trends in the United States ind others. Migration and Economic Opportunity. Philadelphia War . , . , : : Warren S. Research Memorandum on Internal Migration in the Depression. New York. Social Ave.), 1937. Chapter 2. § National Education Association, Resear 180-81; September 1937. Dorn, Harold F., and Lorimer, Frank 188 New York: McGraw-Hil 0 0., 1! University of Pennsylvania Press, of the Mississippi Ri the states | } Rox vers, except Flor ida other includes between the Mountains and the Mississippi River, except Arizona and ‘Texas. The Northeast and Middle States re tho including areas of great gain, showed net ons losses for this decade because of large” emigra New and the cut-over areas near the Great Lakes tions from England and Pennsylvania The movement to farms of about two mil lion persons since 1930, and the checking of migration from farms since 1930, as discussed in the aggregate in the section above, brings up the question of the regional distribution of farm population. Decreases in the number of persons living on farms appear in the drought Montana eastward t area extending from western Iowa, the cotton-tobacco area in north eastern North Carolina, the plantation section of Georgia, the Yazoo-Mississippi Delta, the black belt of Texas, and southwestern Okla homa. Large increases in the farm population occurred in New England, eastern Ohio and western Appa lachians, the Ozarks, eastern Oklahoma, the Birmingham, Alabama, Minnesota, the Puget Sound Pennsylvania, the southern of northern Wisconsin and region in Washington, and the Willamette Valley of Oregon. The greatest increase in vicinity number of persons living on farms was around industrial centers, in mining counties, and in ‘subsistence farming”’ areas. As to changes in concentration of race and nativity groups within the United States, the Negro migration to northern cities was in some ways one of the most significant movements of the 1920-1930 decade. Nearly a million more Negroes left farms than moved to farms, and most of them went to large northern cities. This movement equaled about three-fourths of the total natural increase of Negro population in the United States during the same period. of the States increased The concentration foreign-born in northeastern United 1920-1930 and centered more than ever in the during large manufacturing cities, despite the fact that Migration, Reproduction, and Population Adjustn November 1 { President's Research Com { Goodrich Chapters 1-6 280-89: 136 33. Chapter 1 1936 Science Research Council for Education.”’ Rese h Division. “Federal Support [15] Se Taras beet eet yee puke 4 x % ~ 7 rf— wre) owe > weve” | nr \ va \ wee Sve we” aeerves wey eevee” | ys wry" a ( f Mirae... Ct. NOILVADIW IWNOIDFdaSLNI IA Aanodla . vw s u s vo a) . os & vy) M a s c 4 rs > E 3 < g © n c 4 3 3 Qa ° Qa So ° > ° ° m - oe c v . M a os x) » E > . 2 os —— v ° Ww ¥ v e u 8 4 3 ’ v M Q E c ® > E £ S c 9 : 0 ° ° ~ ° ° m Each light symbol represents because of curtailed immigratien, tituted of the lation in 1930 than in 1920. Only in New New Jersey, Michigan, and California any oup, a smaller proportion total there numerical increases of the Impor these states for In remainder of the country the foreign-born and even in ink ( much less than other groups. vhites are passing into the older age groups vhere the death-rate is high and the losses in nbers are large. During the twenties, migrants for the most reases were finding their way to places o economic Of I ity With +} ] lands [ost part some eX ] t population 0 ic less TAVE tavol chiefly pr TOUS more lost to the most pro ties, communities, largely urban trial. ‘The depression migration was much a search tor h for undoubtedly yvreater economic opport as it Was a sear subsistence secu! was found by many of the grants from cities to farms, even tho it wa a low economic level. Changes in Composition of the Population Age Distribution and Trends ' Che net results of the changes in population discussed in preceding sections are striking. In the population as a whole there has been a steady decline in the proportion of persons under twenty years of age and a corresponding ncrease in the proportion of those over forty five years of age. Because of counterbalanc ng factors there has been little change in the proportion in the most productive group, twenty to forty-four years. The group ove sixty-five years of age shows a more than ten 1850 and fold increase tn numbers between 1930 as compared with a fivefold increase in the whole population. The median age of the population has risen from 16.7 years in 1820 to 26.4 vears in 1930. The first decrease in the number of persons in an important age group occurred during the decade 1920-1930. Accord- ing to the census enumeration, there were 11,573,230 children under five vears of ag in 1920 but only 11,444,390 in 1930. The decline of 128,840 almost equals the number Los Francisco, and Seattle. Those under five years ve of children under five in Angeles, San group, but in 1930 this group was actually smaller by one million than the five- to nine had always comprised the largest five-vear age vear group. It is generally true that cities have relatively tewer children and older people but more pei Chaddock, Robert E 185-93 1 Following section based upon of Political and Social Science 188: Trends in the United States. New namics of Population. New York: Macmillan Co., Data. Washington, D. C November 1934 Government Printing Office, 1937. p [17 Age an 1936. 97 York: McGraw-Hill Book Co Chapter 1 P sons in the highly productive ages than communities. [hese ditterences are mort nounced as the oT cities 10.8 size increases percent of the rural inhabitants w under five years of age in 1930 compared w only 7.7 percent in cities over 500,000 population. For all persons under twenty 44.2 the other extreme, people sixty-five and percents are and 32.7, respectively comprise 5.8 percent of the population in the al group, aged twenty to s! communities, but only 4.3 percent in cities. The cent four, amounted to only 50 percent of the population against 63.0 percent in the cities. The of its people under twenty years of ot South has a much larger proporti ave any other region the United States percent in 1930, contrasted with the } Phu ] iOowes 1¢€ least prosperous communi thar ++.6 t percent in the West, 34.4 percent. In the most productive age group, twenty to forty vears, the South has a relatively low tion, 36.4 percent, percent in the West, 39.8 percent. In the South in other words, for every 100 persons in age group twenty to forty-four there a1 | 2 & persons undet 87 twenty ye West. This places a much heavier burden for child « for the South. aTs, COM with only in the CONAITILIO and education upon n Population Analy innals the Ame Research Committee on Social Trend § Lorimer, Frank, and Osborn yvurces Committee. Population St 1 Sex resident's 1933. Chapter 1 . National Res l Tou propo! compared with the highest FIGURE VII AGE GROUPS Under 5 5- wKKAAAK ow WRIAAAAA — 20-44 45-64 | 65 and oy g g > ds > > > a's > us Fi os: r seeeve01l/F Fee eseisse & S| ses 5 h 1980 x Each symbol represents approximately 6 percent of the tota! population. 19 Sex Ratios and Marital Conditions a more even balance between the sex -_ , percent of the men were married The relation between the number of men - : ' ed percent of the women. In 1900 the s and of women in any population is usually ; Mee 4 ig: for Washington state was 142.2, inf described by a sex ratio, i.e., the number of nf Ws 100 wi N © bd > aT Ys . - «=. ' the ratio is less than 100, women outnumber of the men were married and 65.5 p. men. Phis sex ratio varies at any one time by the women. In 1930, when the sex regions of the country and by classes of the fallen to 112.1, 56.9 percent of the me population, urban and rural, native- and married and the percent for women had { foreign-born, white and Negro. Disparities in but slightly to 64.6. the numbers of men and women in a given The deficit of males among Negroes group affect the proportions married and, in ently increased between 1910 and 193 turn, the birth-rate. in 1910; 97.0 in 1930). In the case of 199 For the United States as a whole the ratio whites the ratio has decreased very was 104.4 in 1900, rose to 106.0 in 1910, from 102.7 in 1910 to 101.1 in 193 and fell to 102.5 in 1930. Correspondingly, the foreign-born white ratio dropped when the sexes were less evenly proportioned 129.2 in 1910 to 115.1 in 1930 as in 1900, 54.5 percent of the men were married of the restriction of the immigratior and 57.0 percent of the women. In 1930, with always brought young male adults. ® Following section based upon: President’s Research Committee on Social Trends. Recent Social Trends in the U» 193 New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1933. Chapter 1. { Chaddock, Robert E. ‘‘Age and Sex in Population Analysi American Academy ef Political and Social Science 188: 185-93; November 1936. { Stouffer, Samuel A., and Spx “Marriage and Divorce in Recent Years.’’ Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188: § 1936 [18 ] FIGURE VIII PROPORTION OF CHILDREN 10-15 YEARS OF AGE GAINFULLY EMPLOYED AARKKKKKRK AARKARAKKKK AAKAARKKRKKK id 6] ‘x rat ion EK © 0 £0 BO O iat 1910 tio had an we d faller O O » appal 0 (98.9 native 1920 ittle 3() lL, it 1 fron + rent O 1 whi ted St 1930 + : N Each symbol represents about 2 percent of children In rveneral, cities have an excess of women while rural districts have an excess of men ‘There are some exceptions to this rule In the metropolitan areas having heavy industries, but it holds for most cities, even for those having large numbers of foreign-born. For instance, the ratio for Boston in 1930 was 95.4 and that for Richmond, Virginia, for the same year was $8.2. Agriculture is typically a man’s job, while occupations suited to women abound in urban centers. Furthermore, death-rates for men rela tive to death-rates for women are higher in cities than in rural districts. When business conditions are good, marriage and divorce rates go up. When depression con ditions exist they go down. In 1932, the number of marriages per 1000 estimated population was only three-fourths as large as the annual average from 1920 to 1929, and divorces fell oft in about the same proportion. In 1933 the marriage rate began a rapid climb upward, in 1934 the divorce rate began a similar climb, and by the end of 1935 both rates were above the predepression level. In all groups the de- pression increased an already existing tendency toward later marriages, thereby reducing the period of fertility for married women and con- tributing to a declining birth-rate. Occupational Shifts The shifting occupational patterns of a peo- ple bring about the decline of old habits and institutions and the rise of new ones. Such adjustments inevitably create problems for gen- eral and vocational education. The gainfully occupied—Does increased out- put per capita lead to a decreased proportion of the population at work? Statistics do not indicate such a trend. In 1870 only about 32 percent of the total population was gainfully occupied. This proportion increased to 40 per- cent by 1930. For those of the best working age, sixteen to forty-four years, about 60 per- cent were occupied in 1930, compared with 57 percent in 1890. This general increase partly reflected an increase from 22 percent to nearly 30 percent in the proportion of women sixteen to forty-four years gainfully occupied. Between 1920 and 1930 there was lecline portion of employed men of this pro group from 92 percent to 89 percent, flecting theincreased numbersof young tinuing their secondary and higher e There has been a marked decline proportion of children at work, pl due to child labor legislation. For bo fifteen years old, the percent empl from 26 percent in 1890 to a little mo 6 percent in 1930; for girls of the sa from 10 percent to 3 percent in the san At the opposite end of the occupatio scale, however, the percent of employed between the ages of torty-five and has increased 2 percent, largely becaus number of married women working the home. Occupational distribution—Sign changes have occurred in the distribu gainful workers in the three broad « industry: (1) extractive (agriculture and forestry); (2) mechanical and facturing; and (3) distributive and For the United States the proportion e: in extractive industries declined stead over 45 percent in 1880 to just under cent in 1930. At the same time the pro; engaged in the distributive and servic increased from 34 to over 47 percent number employed in the latter occu; group in 1930 was almost a third great the number of all gainfully employed in 1880. There was less change in portion of persons engaged in manuta and mechanical industries during th period, from 20 percent in 1880 to 29 in 1930. Furthermore, during the decad 1930 the proportion engaged in manuf and mechanical industries actually d« while the proportion in trade, professior service occupations rose sharply. Thess reflect the transformation of our e system from one organized almost ex: around the direct exploitation of nat sources to one in which considerable placed on mechanical, managerial, prof: and service functions. Employment o; nities seem to be, to an increasing ext 8 Following section based upon: Weintraub, David. ‘‘Unemployment and Increasing Productivity Technologi National Policy. National Resources Subcommittee on Technology. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office Section 5, p. 67-87. § National Education Association, Research Division. ‘‘Modern Social and Educational Trends.’’ R tin 12: 262-63; November 1934. § Goodrich, Carter, and others. Migration and Economic Opportunity. Philadelphia Pennsylvania Press, 1936. Chapter 8. { President's Research Committee on Social Trends. Recent Social Trends in th New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1933. Chapter 6. { Ezekiel, Mordecai. “‘Population and Uneny ent inna ican Academy of Political and Social Science 188: 230-42; November 1936 { 20 ] FIGURE IX REGIONAL_DISTRIBUTION OF OCCUPATIONAL i 1930 EXTRACTIVE : les 4 im Mer AN aa Pope og AND SERVICE Oo 01;0 0 0 Oo WEST Each symbol represents 10 percent of those employed. MIDDLE ih STATES { 21 ] the factory, store, school, hospital, and office. More specifically, because of increased ap- plication of technical and scientific knowledge, fully power has been released from the processes one-fourth of the nation’s active labor of physical production. The clerical and selling occupations have expanded rapidly with the elaboration of the processes of commerce and trade. The professional group as a whole was ten times as large in 1930 as in 1870. The absolute increase in the number of teachers, for example, was 230,000 between 1920 and 1930. There has also been a multiplication of the functions of government with an accompanying growth in the public service occupations. Regional contrasts with respect to changes in the occupational composition of the popula- tion are important. In the Northeast in 1880 about one-fourth of the gainfully employed was in the extractive industries, just over one-third was in manufacturing, and over 40 percent was in distributive and service occupations. The proportion in the extractive industries declined steadily after that time and between 1920 and 1930 there was a decline in the actual number of those engaged in agriculture and forestry. The distributive creased steadily in relative importance (except for a slight drop between 1900 and 1920), and by 1930 this group included over half the total gainfully employed in the region. and service occupations in- The extractive industries of the Middle States declined steadily in relative importance from almost one-half of the gainfully employed in 1880 to less than one-fifth in 1930. Manu- facturing increased in relative importance in each state up to 1920, but declined slightly during the following decade. The distributive and service occupations included about one- third of the total gainfully employed in the region in 1880. In 1930 this group of oc- cupations included over 40 percent of the total in every state. In the Northwest and the Southwest the ex- 1880. Th group has declined from 36 total in 1880 to 18 percent in 1930, w 45 to Manufacturing increased up to 1920 as in the Middle States and the Nx declined slightly in relative importanc: It is in the Southeast that the least has occurred. From 52 to 83 percent service occupations even in percent 56 latter has increased from total gainfully employed in each state the extractive industries in 1880. In | group still included 46 percent of the t the region. The shifts between the ot! occupational groups, also, have been | than in other geographical regions. The non-gainfully occupied—With « percent of the entire population emp|k financial remuneration it is significant what the rest are doing. Some are chr ill or otherwise physically incapacitated are young children or very old peopl are in school; others are in prisons o1 to homes for the feeble-minded and h for the insane. About 20 percent of the p: tion are housewives, not classified by the ¢ Bureau as “gainfully employed.” The trend in school enrolment will cussed more fully in a later section. B well to note here that, according to the enumerations, the ratio of all persons atte: school to the total population of ages { twenty has increased from 45 to 73 from 1870 to 1930. Growth has been tionately much more rapid in the se schools and the universities and colleg: in the elementary schools. Many persons thus been removed from full-time gainf ployment by the increased popularity compulsory higher education. Of cours school population shows a direct relatior expansion of the professional and man employments for which general educatior technical training are required. Only housewives who report some + f tractive industries remain more important than tion other than unpaid domestic wor manufacturing as a source of employment ; but in both regions the number engaged in the distributive and service industries is now equal to or greater than the number engaged in agriculture, mining, or forestry. In the Far West, as in the Northeast, the extractive industries were less important as a source of employment than the distributive and included by the census among the prod workers. In 1920 the Census Bureau est that 22,500,000 women who constitut percent of the female population sixteen of age and over were “home-housekeep« gainfully occupied.” In 1930, tho figures not quite comparable with those of 86 percent or 24,500,000 of the 28,4! char ve ot the vere in 30 this tal for er two S rapid ynly 40 ved for to see ynically ; Many some onfined ospitals popul l Census be dis- ut it Is - census tending five to percent propo! -ondar\ es than ns have ful em- of non- se, this n to the 1agerial ion and occupa rk are ductive timated ited 66 ‘mn years yers not ‘es were 1920- 400.000 nemakers were not working tor any mone tary compensation, but the remaining 14 pet cent ran their homes and were also gainfully occupied. Since 1930 it is estimated that the proportion of married women working or seek yw work for pay has increased because of unfavorable economic conditions. The increase in institutional populations is the result of many factors, including growth in the absolute number of dependents, an in crease in the collective responsibility assumed by society, and possibly the breakdown of the family as a protective institution. The absolute number of persons sixteen years of age and over in institutions for the feeble-minded and epileptic and institutions for juvenile delin- quents, mental hospitals, prisons, benevolent institutions and almshouses grew from about 245,000 to 717,000 between 1890 and 1930. In 1890 the number represented 0.62 percent of the population and in 1930 it was 0.84 per- cent. ‘Those confined to institutions of the above type, however, represent a very small part of the total dependent population. There is a growing sentiment among persons engaged in child welfare activities in favor of foster homes for dependent children in prefer- ence to institutions. Statistics of child welfare in New York State give evidence of this trend. The percent of children who were removed from or kept out of institutions and cared for in family homes instead rose from 12.8 percent in 1915 to 74.2 percent in 1934. Even so, the estimated number of children directly under institutional care was 306,655 in 1933. The unemployed—Altho the phrase “gain- fully occupied,” in Census Bureau usage, refers to all persons ten years old and over who usually follow a gainful occupation, even tho they may not have been employed when the census was taken, separate tabulation was made of information collected on those unemployed in 1930. Obviously no picture of occupations is complete without some attention to those who are unemployed, tho employable. The Census of 1930 reported 3,187,647 per sons as unemployed who were able and w to work.* ‘This number constituted 2.6 pe: of the total population and 6.6 percent of all classified as “gainful workers over ten years of age.” At the date of the census certain groups had a relatively high percent unemployed. Among men 24.1 percent of the building la borers, 21.5 percent of the coal mine operatives, 16.4 percent of the manufacturing laborers, 14.6 percent of the semi-skilled manufacturing operatives, 13.4 percent of the road and street laborers, and 11.2 percent of the cooks were unemployed. Among women 10.7 percent of the semiskilled manufacturing operatives, 10.6 percent of the manufacturing laborers, 7.0 pet cent of the waitresses, and 6.4 of the wage workers on farms were without employment. Up until 1937 recovery in industry and busi ness has been manifesting itself in increased production and sales, increased employment, and increased profits and dividends. But the country is faced with the disturbing realization that estimates of the number of unemployed show little proportionate decrease and that the relief burden remains at a high level. Numerous startling developments in production technics and their resultant displacement of workers, lack of technical skill on the part of many of the un employed, a reticence of some to accept jobs in lieu of relief, and the growing tendency of em ployers to force retirement of older workers at an earlier age, are factors contributing to the continuance of large-scale unemployment fol lowing the depression of the early 1930's. Health Conditions and Physical and Mental Disabilities Health conditions—If the remarkable im provement in health conditions among the American people during the last 25 years were to be measured by the single factor of prolonga- tion of life, it may be safely said that the re- modeling of our national existence in the light of modern understanding of the principles of * Under federal supervision,a voluntary registration of unemployed is being tabulated as this report goes to press. Preliminary estimates for the total unemployed as of November 1937 fix the number between 7.8 and 10.9 miflion persons 5 Following section based upon: U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. ‘Death Rates per 100,000 Estimated Population for Principal Causes in the Registration Area in Continental United States: 1900-1935.’’ Vital Statistics--Special Reports Vol. 3, No. 17. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 1937. p. 89-93. { Dublin, Louis I., and Lotka, Alfred J. Twenty Five Years of Health Progress. New York: Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, 1937. Chapter 1. J Perrott, G. St. J I I The State of the Nation’s Health.”” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188: 131-43; November 1936. { National Education Association, Research Division. ‘‘Modern Social and Educational Trends.’’ Research Bulletin 12: 252-53: November 1934 { Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. Statistical Bulletin 18 1-12; March 1937 and 16: 1-i2; March 1935. New York: Metro- politan Life Insurance Company Press. 1 U. S. Treasury Department, Bureau of Public Health Service, Division of Public Health Methods, National Institute of Health. The National Health Survey: 1935-36. Sickness and Medical Care Series, Bulletin No. 1 Washington, D. C.: the Bureau, 1938. 8 p. (Mimeo.) { War Department estimates of frequency of mental defect from Lorimer Frank, and Osborn, Frederick. Dynamics of Population. New York: Macmillan Co., 1934. p. 149. [ 23 ] sanitation and prevention or cure of disease has extended the duration of human life by nearly 14 years. At the beginning of the second decade of the twentieth century the modern public health movement was just getting under way. Legisla- tion regarding sanitation was being passed and enforced. The benefits of milk Pasteurization had been proved, and a rapid reductionin the ty- phoid fever death-rate was revealing an increas- ing safetyin both the milk and the water supply. During the next twenty-five years advances in medicine and surgery kept pace with im- provements in the standards of living and in the conditions under which men and women work. Medical science has learned to control one of the most devastating diseases of childhood— diphtheria. The annual death-rate from that disease has dropped from 43.3 per 100,000 population in 1900 to 3.1 in 1935. Great epi- fever such as demics of cholera and yellow visited this country periodically during the nineteenth century no longer exist. Smallpox is now comparatively rare. Tuberculosis, tho still the major cause of death in the age group fifteen to twenty-five years, is now largely con- trollable, and its annual death toll has been reduced from 201 deaths per 100,000 popula- tion in 1900 to 55 deaths in 1935. Despite such outstanding progress in the control of certain diseases, especially in the field of child health, other diseases still remain major national problems. Whooping cough and measles each still afflicts more than a million children and causes from 4000 to 8000 deaths in the United States each year. Malaria, con- fined largely to certain areas in the southern states, was more prevalent in 1934 than it had been for years, with about 2,700,000 cases dur- ing that year. Disease of the heart, the principal cause of death in the United States, took a death toll of 213.1 per 100,000 population in A deplorable aspect of the mortalit of the United States is the human life by injuries sustained in prey destr uct home, industrial, and public accident people probably suffer more fatal ac relation to the size of the population th any other nation. The estimated annua lative rate for accidental deaths per lives has increased from 50.1 in Februar to 56.0 in February 1937, automobile «a alone increasing in fatality from 15.7 22 1937. The to 22.8 in automobile death-rate for children however, is de This one bright spot in the dismal p the motor car massacre, as well as the tial decline in mortality rates for all a to both boys and girls since 1925, may b« attributed to safety education progran schools and elsewhere. records Comprehensive national! available for illness as for births and Statistics must be gleaned from report records ot sich that on ited illness surveys and associations. It is estimated average day approximately 8 percent population is suffering from illness, 2 percent disabled by illness, | percent in bed, and one-quarter of | percent h ized. The highest illness rates occu: persons under ten and those over sixt vears of age. The rates decline sharply maximum in infancy to a minimum adolescent period. Beginning at twenty of age the rates for both sexes increas erately thru the young adult years, de again gradually between the ages of thirt and forty-five. With middle age a gradu ward trend is resumed. The illness 1 women shows an excess over the rate fi in every age group from fifteen years uj Preliminary reports of a National H Survey: 1935-36, just released by the | States Public Health Service, estimate th an average winter day some 6,000,000 women, and children (about 5 percent of population) are disabled by illness. Also ing a year, for every death reported there average of 16 cases of illness disabling fo: week or longer. Further, on a per capita every member of the population suffers at ten days incapacity annually from illness Physical and mental disabilities—In addit to diseases and conditions that are import causes of death it is well to consider the ha: 1935 compared with 132.1 in 1900. Cancer and other malignant tumors caused 63.0 deaths per 100,000 population in 1900 and 107.9 in 1935. Pneumonia and influenza, ranking third among the causes of death, were responsible for a death-rate of 104.0 per 100,000 population in 1935 despite the fact that the rate had fallen from 203.4 in 1900. Syphilis, tho not reported frequently as a cause of death, is now being recognized as a major national problem and a contributing factor in many deaths attributed to other causes. [ 24] lents an does cumu OO O00 ‘vy 1936 cidet ts n 1936 ‘Luding mined spita amor ty From a in the mod reasing tY-T\ ial up T ward Healt! J nited hat on ) men, of the », dur e is an or one | basis, t least Idition ortant hand: ind impairments which lower efhicienc \ccording to the Census of 1930, there we 5.000 blind persons (including nearly deat-mutes in a total popul ition 3 000,000, a ratio of 52.8 per 100,000. Onl } it Y percent of this number were y vears ot age, for total blindness is in tl iin an affliction of the aged. Defective visio however, is prevalent among children. \ total of 59,000 deat-mutes was reported by the 1930 Census. An estimate by the Con mittee on H indicapped Children of the White House Conference places at two million th number ot children under twenty vears ot with impaired hearing. This figure includ of course, all degrees of impaired hearing; the total, 17,000 are described as entirely deat The number of crippled children und eighteen is estimated to be 300,000, one-third of whom need special education. The estimated total number of crippled persons of all ages is 700,000. Adult cripples who were crippled during childhood are in large part survivors of ndustrial accidents and war injuries. It is dificult to estimate, according to any simple criterion, the extent of mental defect in this country at the present time. The most com prehensive data on mental defects are those for ’ percer + 1¢ ear Covel in hospit 435,57] ud pe on institutions nstitutions of the Veter ministratior county, city, hospitals. his gives a rate for per 100,000 persons of all ages the prevalence of ment course, reve il only so far as provision is made for tl mental dis and only so far as such p is accepted Despite the premium placed on good he by the increased emphasis on efficienc machine age, and despite the progress that been made thru science to make that healt sible, ignorance, indifference, and low economi status keep the illness ratesand the proportion of the population that is mentally and physically handicapped still at unnecessarily high FIGURE X EXPECTATION OF LIFE AT BIRTH © | _8 bi bt bs | Qa Each full interval represents 10 years. Nat Educ Assn [ 25] Problems Arising from Population Changes Age and Stability of Population ' If the present trend in population growth continues it is predicted by Thompson and Whelpton,”? on the assumption of medium fer- tility and mortality rates, that our population will increase for about 45 years more, but at a constantly lowering rate. By 1980 the United States should have about 153,600,000 people. Assuming a net immigration of 100,000 per- sons per year from 1940 on, the figure for 1980 is raised to 159,000,000. Even with the highest fertility rates and lowest mortality rates that can reasonably be assumed, there would be a natural increase of less than 50,000,000 from 1935 to 1980. A minimum estimate, according to these two authorities, assumes a decline of about one-third in the fertility of native white women from the 1930-34 level to 1980, with no gain thru immigration. This estimate gives a peak population of 138,000,000 in 1955, with a decrease of 10,000,000 during the following quarter century. In like manner, Thompson and Whelpton predict further change in the age distribution. In 1900 there were 90 persons under twenty years for each 100 persons aged twenty to sixty years, whereas the corresponding ratio in 1935 was only 68 and by 1975 is predicted to be about 48. Conversely, where there were 13 persons over sixty years of age per 100 persons aged twenty to sixty years in 1900, the corre- sponding ratio in 1935 was 17 and in 1975 will be about 34. Estimates prepared for the Educational Pol- icies Commission by the Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems show the esti- mated number of children at each year of age from five to nineteen thru the year 1950. These estimates are given in the Appendix. According to Table 1, for every 10 young people nineteen years of age in 1900 there were 13 children five years of age. By 1930 there were 11 five-year-old children to 10 young people nineteen years of age. On the basis of the estimates set forth in Appendix Ta 1940 the ratio will be 8 to 10. From t! to 1950, with medium fertility estimat ratio should increase to 9 to 10, not be a marked increase in five-year-olds but the early deficiencies in births will fir felt in the nineteen-year group, decreasii total. If the present trend in birth-rat tinues, and low fertility estimates can sumed, by 1950 the ratio of five-year- dren to nineteen-year-old yvoung peop stand at 8 to 10. The increasing population to transition from a young one that and numerically stable will bring imy changes. In the past there has been the spread belief that a rapidly growing tion was one of the essential general advancement. Rapid growth lation has undoubtedly contributed progress. The slowing up of growth th: to bring stagnation unless we as a peo; learn to appreciate values expressed of the quality of living as well as in te size. At present each citizen of this count: on the average, a larger amount of arable minerals, and other natural resources disposal than the citizen of any of the c of the Old World. If these resources a: in the public interest and if cultural cor can be made favorable to both persona tive and cooperative endeavor, numeri bilization of the population will ben nation. With fewer children and more elde only proportionately but actually, the | States faces the problem of providing jobs for older workers in an occupational! which prefers to employ young adult economic security for the aged who work, and (3) an increased emphasis o1 conditior VV personal aspects of cultural life as the refle of maturity replaces the impulsiveness of | 1 Following section based upon: Edwards, Newton. Statement before the Committee on Education and Labor Hearings on S. 419, February 9, 1937. Washington, D. C Government Printing Office, 1937 p. 44-56 Detailed st Edwards to be published by American Youth Commission early in 1938.) { President’s Research Committee on Sox Recent Social Trends in the United States. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188 Sex in Population Analysis.”’ { Lorimer, Frank, and Osborn, Frederick. Dynamics of Population. New York: Macmillan Co., * From estimates of future population prepared for the report of the Committee on Population Problems to the sources Committee by Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton, of the Scripps Foundation for Research i: 1933. Chapter 1. { Chaddock, Robert 185-93; Nove 1934. Chapter 1 N 1 Population | [ 26 | FIGURE XI TREND OF POPULATION, “1750-1980 IN MILLIONS fes con- 160 be is ld ch 1) le Will Medium mortality, low fertility No net immigration after 1940 @eee Geese rapidly Medium mortality, medium fertility No net immigration after 1940 Medium mortality, medium fertility 100,000 net annual immigration after 1940 popula ions ot 1 popu ‘Oo past reatens dle can | terms ‘rms of ry has, e land untries re used ditions initia al Sta | ~annot yn the lection vouth : Ma ctual 1750-1930 as corrected from census figures by National Resources C Estimated 1935-1980 by Scripps Foundation for Research in Population Problems. ttee's C ttee on Population Problems. [ 27 ] Social-Economic Status of Population Within this population, gradually approach equilibrium, It is important to note that ‘ . . , tamilies of inferior economic status have the higher fertility rates. In the towns and cities the lower occuy onal groups, especially those in straitened « cumstances and on relief, have on the average nore children than neighboring groups with superior economic, social, and cultural advan tages. At the same time there is hardly a single urban group in which the majority of the oung people enjoy the advantages of high school education, and in which many continue their education thru college, that is now re pl iciIny itself trom one generation to another. l"he net reproductive loss in these urban groups inges trom 10 to 35 percent per generation. lhe groups in the United States which are at present reproducing at rates far above actual replacement needs are located in certain rural ireas, and predominantly in communities that are at the lowest economic levels and most remote from those educational and cultural in Huences which are held typical of social prog- ress. For the United States as a whole, fertility in the poorest areas is 77 percent in excess of that necessary to replace the population in those areas. This stands in contrast to a deficit of 17 percent in the areas with the highest level of living. To go a bit further in the contrast, some large rural groups are reproducing so rapidly and other large urban groups are so diminish- ing that the surviving children of a million women of childbearing age now living in the former groups will be twice as numerous as the surviving children of a million women in the latter groups. Such an extreme situation, if con- tinued for three generations, would cause the descendants of the first group to be sixteen times as numerous as the descendants of the second group. Thus, each new generation of Americans is tending to be disproportionately recruited from areas with low standards of living and inferior educational resources. Lorimer, Frank { Tugwell, Rexford G Following section based upon 1934. Chapters 9 and 14 1936. p. 93-95. ‘ Following section based upon: Goodrich, Carter of Pennsylvania Press, 1936. Part I. { Black, John D the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188 Population.” “National Significance of Recent Trends in Farm Population 1-7; October 1935. | Odum, Howard W. Southern Regions of the United States. Chapel Hill and others Agricultural Population in Relation to Agricultural Resource 205-17; November 1936. { Thompson, Warren S Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188 Southern Population and Social Planning.’’ Social Forces 14: 16-22; October 1935. | Odum, Howard W The constant stre ireas or favored mountain ind coasta from the Southern App na marginal cotton land torced by reproduction trends teadil counteract the educ ( eito made in American cit Unless fu is made to raise the sox Nomi groups producing our tuture popu two generations, in tion to br and numerically stable, that poy likely nomic status than that of the pres to have a decide ailterent Population Distribution In spite ot the tendency tor inter! tion to produce a balance between th« distridDutio tion of population and the nomic resources, there remain in th large areas of overpopulation relati oped resources, resulting in chronic po r cultural stagnation for millions of peoy reference has already been made to that exist in the southeastern states. Bad management, excessive use fo gain, or pressure of population ofte: the exhaustion of natural resources. |] tion is exemplified by the forest lands merly yielded great wealth and gave ment to many, but now are stripped of the Wisconsin, cut-over region of Minnesot resources thi u stands, in Michigan, mendous waste of soil and parts of the | has occurred in States, but the Great from the Dakotas and Texas, has been most seriously affected man) Plains area, ext \lontana to droughts followed by dust storms carrie the surface soil and drove thousands ot ilies from their homesteads or forced the the depths of poverty. Conversely, maladjustment due prin the rapid depletion of natural resource about overpopulation. In a region dom by agriculture, forestry, or mining, a and Osborn, Frederick. Dynamics of Population. New York: Ma Socta University of North Ca Migration and Economic Opportunity. Philadelphia The Dist 250-59; November 1936. 1 Woofte Southern Regior United States. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1936. Chapter § { 23] “awosui ayqewunosce je yu22/9d v $yuas2idai $41!9 je yess yore ‘abe jO suead f1-¢ uonejndod pj'y> jo yu2diad p syuasaidas Pyiy> yrez - " a \ ee ISWAHLNOS thd \ ISAMHLNOS —— , AISIM UWd be ry 1SIMHLYON 9E6I-SESL “SNOID3Y DIHdWADOIO XIS NI JWOONI S.NOILVN 4O LNIDadd GNY N3axdTIHD S.NOILWN JO LN3IDY3d IIx HANDIA : = we -° »& & FS S oe : oe x wat — 7 — = > © oe coat ae rw 2 2s . Sf = ee ., =m 4 Ss c¢ == & =~ — he oe =) Ss ” — ~ us ~~ = ° - ‘_— a ae 3 ~ = 3s tS a - — ~S <= & = an rr C = m 4 a = > & & = 4 < _ &. - & & Om D@ SPD ay ay & — a =scs #2 Sse 8 circle may be set up if demand for the region's characteristic products is static or declining and if it is a region of high reproduction rates. ‘The Southern Appalachian Coal Plateaus and the Old Cotton Belt are two such areas. Low average income, lack of contact with outside developments, and meager and ineftective edu- cation retard the introduction of new industries or methods of production, and hamper move ment to other places where opportunity is greater. Thus areas of inadequate opportunity eventually develop a surplus of population. ‘The report on Migration and Economic Op portunity points definitely to certain areas which should give up population thru emigra- tion. Lhe cut-over region of the Great Lakes, by migration within its region, can probably take care of all but a few thousand of its pres- ent population, but in the case of the Great Plains it is argued that the minimum exodus consistent with the safe use of the land would be a quarter of a million people. Authorities on the population and resources in the Coal Pla- teaus of the Southern Appalachians suggest that some three hundred and fifty thousand people should leave their crowded region. Staggering numbers ranging on various hypoth- eses from one and one-half to six or seven million are suggested as necessary migrants from the Old Cotton Belt to alleviate the population pressure on economic resources. If these great numbers of people do migrate from the less-favored regions, their influx into new communities immediately creates prob- lems. The cumulative effect of years of fighting a losing battle against economic inequalities has not equipped them to fit into new situations which frequently require occupational adjust- ment and drastic changes in living habits. All too frequently migrants from these areas to great urban centers are faced with mass unem- ployment, widespread underemployment, severe need, and social conflict that they have never known before. In this matter of a poorly dis- tributed population the nation faces an acute situation. Occupational Adjustment Material progress and increased worker have created dislocations nomic system. Mere technical ad may lead to a state of chronic inabil all our labor power. A small part of the problem is auto cared for by the fact that some declinir tries show very large proportions of over forty-five years of age—for exam ness factories (68.9 percent), live (52.6 percent). The industry tends with the worker. On the other ha technical improvements supplant an lished craft with machinery, the ne ployed semiskilled machine operatives to be recruited from the younger ages expanding industries show low propo workers past the forty-five-year line ample, automobile factories (19.6 rubber products (21.1 percent), petri fineries (19.9 percent), and radio broa (5.5 percent). New industries, est usually in urban communities, draw uj young persons who have not become to an established industry. These cor force old employees out of their forn but present little incentive for them to their occupation. As mentioned previously, the labor growing older, but industry wants th worker. This may result in a clash employers and employees. Union orga: tends to protect the man already in ar try against pressure for displacement chinery or youth. But unemployed young ordinarily have no union affiliations. ‘The difficulty in entering the industries wh older workers are “sitting tight.’’ Ob the situation calls for cooperation betwee: cation, labor, and industry whereby wor! rience thru apprenticeship will be availa! youth under conditions which will not e: ger the employment of the mature wor present occupational trends continue the lem of employment for the young and the workers is apt to grow increasingly se1 * Following section based upon: Ezekiel, Mordecai. “‘Population and Unemployment.’’ Annals the American A Political and Social Science 188: 230-42; November 1936. { Weintraub, David. “Unemployment and Increasing Pr Technological Trends and National Policy. National Resources Subcommittee on Technology, Washington, D. C.: Goverr ing Office, 1937. Part I, Section 5, p. 67-87. [30] FIGURE XIII LABOR SUPPLY AND EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYED UNEMPLOYED A aA a LAA a a A A a a \AAAA a Ga a A apply is AAAA young Each figure represents 10 percent of available labor supply. Nat. Educ. Assr etwee! izatior indus by n people oy have ere the viousl\ en edu k expe able to endan ker. If * prob -he old ious PART II. EDUCATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION TRE) Summary of Part II At the time the public schools were founded there were no effective methods by which pre- dictions could be made with regard to the size of the task which would soon confront public education: the amount of money which would be required, the number of teachers to be trained, the number of schools that must be built in order to house the children of a nation that within a few years would reach from coast to coast. The need and desire for public educa- tion, rather than knowledge that the under- taking could be carried thru, motivated the launching of public schools. Today, if educa- tion is to realize the hopes of its founders, it is essential to give thought to its quantitative aspects. Information must be anticipated on the number of children to be educated in each locality and state, the amount of funds which will be needed, the number of teachers who must be trained, the amount of physical equip- ment which will be required. Such information needs to be interpreted so as to reveal the edu- cational implications for each state and com- munity. Ten of the more general implications suggested by Part II are summarized below. |. Improvement and extension—Decreasing numbers of children to be educated should be used as an opportunity to enrich and improve the educational program. Every effort should be made to bring into the schools these children who are now growing up without adequate schooling. The schools should play a crucial part in developing a universal civic intelligence required to meet the problems of an industrial democracy. 2. School plant—The location and design of new school buildings should be determined after careful studies of existing and probable future trends in the school population at the various educational levels. The growth of cities due to migration, rural resettlement projects, the movement of urban residences to the out- lying sections, and the development of road systems facilitating transportation of rural pu- pils, as well as natural rates of increase or decrease in population, are among the factors to be considered. 3. Guidance and adjustment — Guidance services and other appropriate means should be used by the schools to adjust educati: rrams, not only to the great number of who remain in one locality, but to th robile population who change frequent one school to another. 4. Rural schools rural areas will be the reservoirs of t] The probability population makes the improvement education a national necessity. Rural e must offer opportunities suitable both f who will stay on the farm and for t! will migrate to the cities 5. Population facts in the curriculu facts with regard to the trends in th tion of the United States should be pre appropriate levels in the educational | especially in connection with subjects the social studies, home economics, tional training. 6. Wholesome attitudes on populati tions—The schools should encourage both youth and adults the formation tudes toward family life and family sibilities which are socially) acceptable, to the general end that the p! and intellectual quality of the futur: tion may be lifted. and indi 7. Teacher The educat teachers and the administration of teach personnel sonnel should be planned and carried out light of current population trends. In th lar elementary and secondary schools, d« ing numbers of children may make it p: to bring about desirable reductions in classes and perhaps to lift the level of t preparation, selection, and compensatior tension of school services in such relativ: fields as vocational, adult, and special educ will call for a larger personnel in these { 8. Better education for more adults increasing proportion of adults in the population combines with other imp: social changes to suggest the advisabilit increased provision for adult education integral part of public education. 9. State and federal support—The ments of population from one area to anot [ 32] I] popula -nted rovral such d voca among of att respor iduall yhysical popul 1 lecreas vossible size of teacher n. Ex ly new ication fields —The » total ortant lity of move nother the same state and from one state to another sugvest the mport nce ised state and federal participat il support tor basic educational servic Public relations—Since many adult cit re childless or have no children of school the interpretation of the schools to th should emphasize not only the specia zed sery ice to the child, but also the vyenet venefits and the civic, social, and econon values of universally effective schoolin lo adjust its policies and practises to meet the demands of a population of more adults ind tewel children, to look to the quality of a population which is rapidly becoming numer cally stable, to create among those enjoying the vreatest economic and educational advantage social attitudes which place more favorable id in the ed worket ind nexperienced worl , piems whi nh tace edu nel hool the educational whol ion change idament i Instrument n bout the realization ot ocial rC) lhe headings under which the imp! of population trends are discussed below no sense mutually exclusive, but are treated separately only for convenience. Chanves in the curriculum, for example, will involve changes in school building programs, in the educatior ot teachers, and in school finance Trends in School Population \[any of public education’s greatest triumphs and most perplexing problems have had a com mon origin in a rapidly increasing school popu- lation. We have been proud to stand first mong nations in proportion of child popula tion enrolled in school. This, in itself, has been at once the most valid evidence of the existence of a democratic government in this country and the most reliable assurance of its perpetuation. But we have been forced to our utmost en deavor to provide education for an ever grow ing army of children. Perhaps none but a young, idealistic, and wealthy nation would have tried it at all—would have attempted to break the hold of tradition against education for the masses, would have undertaken the task of convincing the masses of people themselves of the necessity for their own education, would have kept a pioneer school within reach of the restless wagon train moving westward, would have placed modern buildings in congested areas of cities in order to stimulate hope in the midst of squalor, 1 Following section based upon: U. S. Dept. of the Interior Office of Education Survey of Education in the United States: 1932-34. Bulletin, 1935, No. 2. Washington, D. C Chapter I. (Advance pages). { U. S. Dept. of the Interior, Office of Education But America, literally in her “teen age the average age of the people of this count when public schools were founded was but seventeen years set her hand to this tas} with confidence that some means would be found to continue the work of public education thru out future generations. History shows that th faith has not been unfounded. Thru periods of economic emergency that have arisen, the American people have always fallen upon som« plan for maintaining and even improving the public schools. Elementary Schools Elementary-school enrolment trends up to 1930 corresponded quite closely with popula tion growth. From 1870 to 1922 both showed rapid gains. From 1922 to 1930 increases in enrolment were somewhat less pronounced, but there were still important increases at the upper-grade levels. Between 1930 and 1932, enrolment de- however, elementary-school Statistical Summary of Education.’’ B Government Printing Offic Statistics of State School Systems, 1933-34 Biennial Survey of Education in the Umited States: 1932-34. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 1936. Chapter and 2. (Advance pages). § President's Research Committee on Social Trends. Recent Social Trends im the United States. New York McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1933. Chapter 7. { American Association for Adult Education. Handbook of Adult Education in the United States. New York: the Association (60 E. 42d St.), 1936. 389 p School Review 45: 82; February 1937. { Smith, Rufus D Population and Schools——-A Reversal in Trends can Association of University Women 30: 11-15; October 1936 Universities and Colleges, 1936.” School and Society 44: 793-811 Committee on Education and Labor, U. S. Senate Hearings on S (Educational New Journal of the Amer { Walters, Raymond. “Statistics of Registration in American Higher Education Again on the Upgrade.”’ December 19, 1936. 1 Edwards, Newton. Statement made before 419, February 9, 1937. Washington, D. C Government Printing Office, 1937. (Detailed study by Dr. Edwards to be published early in 1938 by the American Youth Commission. ) [ 33} FIGURE XIV ELEMENTARY EDUCATION ENROLMENT So 7 2 222s me RRRARAR RERERREERE 1910 ww ARAARARRRRRK > 2] = wRRRARARRRRR we RARRARRERRR) Each symbol represents 2 million pupils in public and private elementary schools. eased while the total population growth con sinued, altho with less rapidity. In this two vear period the total elementary-school enrol- ment declined by 143,173 children. By 1934 there were 370,383 fewer than in 1932, and by 1936 there were 372,476 fewer than in 1934. The decrease from 1930 to 1932 was 0.7 per- cent; from 1932 to 1934, 1.8 percent; from 1934 to 1936, 1.8 percent; and from 1930 to 1936, +.2 percent. Up to 1934 the decreases occurred in the first five elementary grades while the sixth and each succeeding grade made annual These decreases, however, will creep on up thru the grades as the years pass. It has been stated that in the year 1935 more pupils were sraduated from the elementary schools than gains. ever had been before or ever will be again. There was a smaller number of children to enter first grade from 1930 to 1935 than from 1920 to 1925. It is predicted that 5 percent fewer children between the ages of six and nine will be found in 1940 than there were in 1930. Thus, the accumulated effect of steady de- creases in child population will be found in all grades soon. Indeed, by 1936 the total ele- mentary and secondary enrolment showed a decrease of 67,000 below the 1935 peak. Secondary Schools During the past four decades the expansion of secondary education in this country has been spectacular. The declining employment of young people is reflected here. Urbanization and the specialization and standardization of industrial processes have, for the most part, forced youth to choose among gainful employ- ment in a routine occupation, continued attend- ance at school, or idleness. As recent trends have been toward the elimination of the first of these possibilities, the choice now lies be- tween schools and idleness for many young people of high-school age. In 1870, one in five hundred of the popula- tion was in high school ; by 1930 the secondary schools were enrolling one in twenty-two of the population. In 1900, 3.3 percent of the public school enrolment was in secondary schools; thirty years later that percent had increased to 17.1, and, by 1934, to 21.4 percent. The fed- eral Office of Education estimates that in 1936 secondary schools enrolled 65 percent or nearly two-thirds of all children fourteen to seventeen years of age. The Far West ranks highest in the school attendance of children from fourteen to seven teen years of age, having 75 percent enrolled In the group is in school; in the Southeast, only 34 Southwest only one-half of this age percent. Other sections fall between these pet cents: the Northwest with 65 Middle States with 59 percent, and the North east with 52 percent. Thus, high-school enrol percent, the ment is relatively lowest in the poorer sections of the United States. Further growth in high-school enrolment is expected as the employable age and vocational training requirements are raised. By about 1938 recent losses in the elementary enrolment should begin to affect enrolments at the ninth-grade level, but total high-school enrolments will not become stationary or begin to decline for some time. Colleges and Universities Altho young people of the usual college ages are outside the jurisdiction of compulsory school attendance laws, powerful social and economic factors have operated to increase en rolments in institutions of higher education. In 1910 less than 5 percent of the population of college age was in attendance at the regular session of some institution of higher learning. In 1932 the corresponding figure was almost 13 percent. The World War was followed by a period of rapid college growth, enrolments in- creasing 13.9 percent from 1920 to 1922 and 20.8 percent between 1922 and 1924. Material gains followed each year until 1930 when the financial depression curtailed the advancing enrolment. According to the latest available report, full-time enrolment for 1937 showed 1936. The enrolment for 1936 represented an increase of an increase of 3.6 percent over 6.5 percent over 1935, which in turn exceeded 1934 by 6.6 percent. These increases reflect more prosperous business conditions thruout the country for these years and the availability of National Youth Administration work relief to needy students. Unless this work relief assistance is with drawn, college and university enrolments are likely to increase generally, at least until the early part of the next decade. The tendency to prolong education at the high-school and col- lege level will for some years more than offset the influence of a declining birth-rate and any increase in work opportunities that now seems likely to occur. [35] SECONDARY EDUCATION -ENROLMENT = O O wo NA > nein Be M1 ORY 9 mo NAKKAAKA oe = ee : ee © es ee? ee © ey * ee ee a NAKKAARAAA eee o2-): fe ee em 66: mn AARARRARAN Each symbol represents 600,000 students in public and private schools. { 36 | FIGURE XVI ' HIGHER EDUCATION ENROLMENT > | 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 > 2.9 2 2 * 2 § AANAAAAAAS > © 8 2 2. 2 2 2 ®& AANANAAAAAAA Each symbol represents 100,000 students in public and private colleges. AANAAAAAAAA A 1934 [ 37] Methods and Curriculum ' In forward-looking American schools a defi- emphatic by population changes. ‘\ nite responsibility is accepted for developing education is essential, but every good citizenship to meet the growing require- more to himself and to his fellow « ments and opportunities of American democ- merely keeping himself well fed and racy. This fundamental educational purpose cators must face the problem of as makes it necessary that the processes of cur- unemployed young adult to make a w riculum planning and reconstruction go for- of his leisure time. ‘The schools ward continuously. The content and methods make a concerted effort to train your of teaching are being modified constantly on in the skills and habits of self-entert the basis of new findings of scholarship, im- self-improvement, and constructive |! proved methods of teaching, and a more com-_ present and future enjoyment. As the plete understanding of the imperatives of the tion grows older and as the life s social situation, creased, the leisure years of old ag For such a curriculum the population trends increasingly significant. which are reviewed in this report suggest sev- Fundamental to the population situ eral important points of emphasis, including the future are the educational pr: especially the foundations for vocational educa- which touch upon effective family lif tion, the enrichment of life thru the wise use of | the kindergarten up thru adult educat leisure time, and training for happy and effec- training should be a function of th tive family life. educational process. Biology, hygiene The school’s contribution to preparation for education, literature, history, home eco: vocation is, for most of the population, brought and the social studies can all contribut to a focus in the secondary schools. It is natu- pursuit of such an objective. If the po ral that young people, whether spurred on by of the United States is to progress as it ambition or dogged by fear of economic inse- itself it must reproduce from the more curity, should seek to establish their own eco- healthful level. From the standpoints nomic welfare thru education. Yet it is just in environment and heredity, the problen this respect that school experience often proves ulation improvement becomes pract the least satisfactory. The nature of American problem of the improvement of fami! life and industrial enterprise and the limita- startling statement may be quoted: ‘‘R« tions of school programs and equipment make _ tion is basic to all human achievement school training for a large number and variety the biologist would say that any ci) of highly specific occupations extremely diff- which produces a general unwillingness cult. Vocational programs, at least in the ordi- and rear children has by that very fact nary secondary school, should lay foundations _ its lack of fitness to survive.” * Social fer training on the job and develop understand- supporting unreasonable family limitat ing of the basic machines, tools, and processes the part of persons best able to rear c! common to a large occupational field. The tend to promote ineffective family life. O: school is also concerned with developing sound other hand, ignorance and lack of econon health, social efficiency, habits of careful work, educational opportunity on the part of s and other important vocational assets. It is also the more prolific groups in the populatio: concerned with helping each student to under- mote low-level family life. If family life stand his own abilities and limitations in the enriched, education must reveal its value light of the various vocational possibilities. portion of the population which goes to s Preparing for the enrichment of life thru the In the process of adjusting the curricul employment of leisure time is another demand these and other special needs growing upon the school curriculum which is made more changing population trends, the great 1 For further discussion corisult: Rugg, Harold. American Life and the School Curriculum. Boston: Ginn and Co., | 2, p. 17-29. 9 Schorling, Raleigh, and McClusky, Howard Y. Education and Social Trends. Yonkers-on-Hudson, N. Y.: W Co., 1936. Chapter 6, “Shifting Character of the Population,”’ p. 88-89. { National Education Association, Department tendence. The Improvement of Education: Its Interpretation for Democracy. Fifteenth Yearbook. Washington, D. C ment, 1937. Chapter 10, “A Long-Time Program for Educational Improvement,” p. 141-47. { National Education Associat ican Association of School Administrators. Youth Education Today. Sixteenth Yearbook. Washington, D. C.: the Associat Chapters 3, 5, and 6. * National Education Association, Committee on Social-Economic Goals of America. /mplications of Social-Economi Education. Washington, D. C.: the Association, 1937. p. 21. [38 ] Vow adult oy tizer busy. | ssistin; wort] hould UNE peor } rtainmen: 10bbies f he popul pan is re will tuation ot yrocedurs ife. Fro ition such he entire » Physical conomics ute to the opulatio t replaces ; able and s of both n of poy tical]; J life. A eproduc . Indeed ilization S to bear t proved attitudes ition, on *hildren On the mic and some ot ion pro- ; is to be e to that ) school ulum t out of at con 5. Chapte ‘orld Book f Superir e Depart on, Amer ion, 1938 Goa jor | aim and purpose of American educa- Oli 1 eon must be kept at the center of attention. To our schools is committed the maintenance nd improvement of American society. This ociety is democratic in ideal; it repudiates «vernment by sheer force, nourishes the in quiring spirit of science, and rests on the mor imperative that human life has an intrinsic value. Out of this philosophy, the purposes of the American school are to be defined; to this all the American school must be attuned. philosophy learning activities of the Guidance ' Population changes, especially those involv- ing internal migration and maladjustment in the occupational world, complicate the prob- lems of the schools, and students of all kinds of ibility will find “rough going” on the path toward social adjustment. There is a need for comprehensive guidance service at all levels of the educational program. The expanded and differentiated curricu- lum, especially from the secondary-school level up, calls for guidance in making choices of far- reaching importance. Because selection of many subjects of specialization has become equivalent to temporarily designating one’s occupational plans, this is the point at which guidance may be considered vocational. In a time when life was simple, occupations few, and educational opportunities relatively brief and meager, a choice of life work was usually less difficult. But now, with the multiplication of occupa- tions and increased specialization, with rapid shifts as technological improvements change demands for workers in certain fields, with the influx of both married and single women into the occupational world, with unemployment threatening on certain fronts, and with the securing of “that first job” becoming increas- ingly difficult, a comprehensive program for the guidance for boys and girls is a necessity. On the adult level no one is in greater need of guidance than the man or woman who seems hopelessly caught in the web of occupational displacement and economic depression. The burden of relief for such situations has long rested solely upon social agencies, but the burden of the education and guidance of these adults so they can relieve their own situations should be, at least in considerable part, a responsibility of the schools. If the-mfZration of large groups of families out of areas of barren economic advantage is to be effected, should not the schools help to educate families to the necessity of moving and those For further discussion consult: Koos, Leonard V., Macmillan Co., 1932. Chapters 1 and 14, p. 1-27, 445-507 American Academy of Political and Social Science 194: 34-41 7, and 8. and Kefauver, Grayson N { Bentley, J. H The November 1937 tion of School Administrators. Youth Education Today. Sixteenth Yearbook. Washington, D. C in guiding them toward areas of greater op portunity ? There is a growing necessity for guidance of young and old in our rapidly shifting popu lation as they are constantly called upon to make personal adjustments to new regions, new associates, new occupations, and new social environments. The rural boy is confused in a large city; a migrating family from the Great the the eastern industrial areas strange and forbidding. Plains finds western mountains ot Schools have long represented a_ stabilizing force in America. It seems, therefore, a new ther agencies, to provide well-informed men and task of the schools, along with social women to guide and counsel the maladjusted individuals in our population. Many of the groups migrating from the city to the farm were families with children of school age. There were 43,666 fewer children enrolled in city schools in 1934 than in 1932 and 202,418 more children enrolled in rural schools. While part of this difference was due to differences in birth-rate which always favor rural areas, some of it must have been due to migration. At the present time no doubt the difference is decreasing due to the continued and fewer families to the country. What does this migration of more families to the city rapid interchange mean to the thousands of children involved ? Change in schools, teachers, textbooks, courses of study, and schoolmates. Many children during the past seven or eight vears have had to make three or more adjust ments to different schools. This presents a diffi cult problem for education: How to make the course of study, the teaching methods, and especially the guidance methods flexible enough to enable the migrating child to find his correct place in whatever school he may chance to be placed for the time being. Increasing mobility is steadily bringing this problem into the fore assist 4 ground. New York inn i the Guidance in Secondary Scho Vocational Guidance of Youth { National Education Association, American Associa the Association, 1‘ Chapters 4 [ 39 ] School Building Programs ' Expansion in enrolments during the past decade has put great pressure upon physical facilities, Many school districts will be faced for years to come with the necessity of modern- izing buildings and equipment. Increased em phasis upon natural learning activities has necessitated adjustments in the physical plant toward functional, diversified, and group ac- tivity uses. New visual and auditory aids to instruction, socialized classroom procedures, increased emphasis upon health and physical development, more attention to pupils with physical disabilities or defects, more regard for pupil safety—all involve school building change or expansion or both. With occupa- tional trends laying greater stress on training for service occupations there will likely be not only a modification of the program of voca- tional education, but also the provision for more specialized physical facilities for those parts of education designed to give esthetic and recreational experiences. For at least a few years school enrolment in many communities should be made to hold its own by the enforcement of better attendance laws and by the provision of necessary facilities. There is now a tendency in this direction, especially among the southern states where large numbers of future school children are and will be located. ‘Thompson and Whelpton point out that “if the highest attendance stand- ards prevailing in 1930 in any geographic section had been universal, there would have been about 2,300,000 more children 7-16 years of age in school.’ This number is about double the decline in school population that is ex- pected during the next decade. With assurance of increasing legal and ad- ministrative support, teachers and other school officials face the first problem growing out of a decline in population: to fill the rapidly ac- cumulating blank spaces in the school register with the names of boys and girls of the middle and upper grades who ordinarily drop out of school early. This problem should receive first consideration in any democratic system of edu- cation, While it is one which has always been present, a rapid decline in school population throws it into high relief. It is essentia those without educational benefits int while laying plans for an enriched pri those already in school. Figures compiled for this stud Scripps Foundation for Research in Po Problems show trends in population f to nineteen years of age inclusive, fron 1950 (see Appendix). Estimates are the total population by single years according to certain assumptions regar ture fertility and mortality trends. Pri are made separately for the white an population. Changes in the number of five-yea: dren may be studied as an illustratio: kind of information which these tab| The tables show that in 1900 ther 1.8 million five-year-old children. Th ber of these children at that time was increasing. In 1910 there were 2.0 milli children. In 1920 there were more t! million. An increase of 0.2 million in decade of the twentieth century, and crease of over 0.3 million in the second indicate that even up to comparativel years the rate of increase was an accel one. By 1930 there were 2.5 million f olds, and at that point the number children in the population began to de sharp break in the trend appears in is estimated that by 1940 there will be |x 2.1 million five-year-old children. R back thru the table it will be seen th will be in 1940 only as many five-yea: there were in 1912. By 1950, accord entirely reasonable assumptions, the nu: five-year-old children will have declined than 1.9 million, approximately the that there were in 1903. These tables ¢ the United States as a whole, a picture future school population in the next de a half. What will the trends in population d: demands to expand physical facilities? some districts continue to modernize bu and to reorganize -quipment, other d will find it financially wise to abando: ‘For further discussion consult: Smith, Rufus D. ‘Population and Schools.’ Journal of Educational Sociology April 1936. § Reeves, F. W. “Rural Educational Problems in Relation to New Trends in Population Distribution.” S 14: 7-16; October 1935. { Smith, Henry Lester. “Planning School Buildings To Satisfy Recent and Anticipated Char School Program.’’ Proceedings of the Fourteenth Annual Meeting, 1936. National Council on Schoolhouse Construction Tenn.: the Council (Sec.-Treas.: Ray F. Hamon, George Peabody College for Teachers), 1936. p. 16-23 [ 40 ] \\ lho, in the aggregate, elementary-school many areas which } Herr olments are decreasing, we to be Meccas for migrants find t u ties taxed to capacity while vacant schools 1 tell the story of movement away fron ther once populated sections. The consolida ion of the rural school attendance and admin ve units, the improvement of transporta tion facilities to consolidated schools, travelin; and teachers, and the introductior libraries of dormitories in towns and villages for chil iren from isolated sections are illustrative of the tendency toward centralized educational opportunity. In urban areas, especially where migrants oth from farms and from city centers con centrate in suburban sections, school building programs will continue to undergo constant New more and more to center on secondary schools. readjustment. construction will tend A decrease in the demand for additional facil ities should make possible some of the func tional improvements heretofore postponed. But another population situation must here be taken into consideration. As has been pointed out earlier, cities have a preponderance of adults. What can be done for the middle-aged and older persons, many of whom do not have chil dren or are parents of grown children? One way of insuring for the schools the interest and financial support of childless adults is for school systems to sponsor the use and, if necessary, the tion which constantly built ever highe remodeling ot modate adi ()verexpansion | n\ > ot Continu sion on the basis of old population tv will need to be avoided { booster” psychology would likely p1 levelopment of a modern instruction ram and fail to provide properly for educational expend School spectacular tures eachers’ salaries. districts in have tinaneed large developments in works thru the issuance of long-term bonds Interest and amortization on these bonds were readily absorbed by a rapidly growing popula ISSESS ment values. With a very slowly growing popu lation, or a stationary population, long-term financing may lay a heavy burden of debt on the children now moving on into adult life Community planning for a school building based upon a thoro study of local and national popu program in any locality must now be lation trends, using all available statistics such as those on residential developments, birth-rates ind death-rates, the extension of public services such as telephones and electricity and other in dications of population changes. ‘The problem involves both design and placement—design to accommodate changes in curriculum and pro gram emphasis, placement to accommodate a mobile population which is providing fewer and children for replenishment in some areas more in others The Education of Teachers ' If schools are to meet the problems imposed by population forces, teachers and administra tors in those schools must become aware of the implications of these changes. The new types of educational services foreshadowed by these changes will call for new types of personnel At the same time, smaller classes, greater atten tion to individual differences, and a higher level of teacher preparation are needed. Data from the National Survey of the Edu cation of Teachers indicate clearly that man\ 1 For further discussion consult: Evenden, Edward S.; Ga States. U Il. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office Trends in Population Distribution.”’ Social Forces 14: 7-1¢ Education Association, 1935. Chapter 11, p. 164-87 provement of Education: Its Imterpretation jor Democracy 10, “A Long-Time Program of Educational Impro\ ement | 41 S. Dept. of the Interior, Office of Education, Bulletin ationa 1935. p. 42. © Reeves, F. W Rura October 1935 Theisen, W. W The Problem’ of New Education.’’ Social Change and Education. Thirteenth Yearbook. Washington, D. ¢ | " National Education Fifteenth Yearbook. Washington, D. C teachers are not adequately prepared for their jobs. This is true of the teachers in the open country to a much greater extent than of those The pro portions of teachers in different sized communi in villages and urban communities. ties with less than two years of college educ 1 tion were as follows: Open country, one- and two-teacher schools, 62 percent ; open country, more-teacher schools, 28 villages of less than 2500 population, 21 pet three- or percent ; cent; cities of 2500 to 9999 population, 12.6 Harold G. Teacher Pers of the Educat Educational Problen survey c @ Department of A / ) 06 206 ) 1 05 a 07 20 44 246 3 ()7 / 9 11 08 209 09 4 “—hO IM LD Ww. Aine DO. Naw NAN Or IN WwW” AAC 7%) \0 O IN ID Ww NNN moO AAO IN IDW NAN tw —n —~ oD op “se a | '™ /y / Dé 1916 261 / 191 263 its 216 x nc mone NNN “Io + NaN In OS OOm ane ae a ed InN imu ANN = = ot A ~~ or op a ~ st) 17 29 ) uw ™ ul =. or wv NS ) ) a | ,) 249 ) IG 29 ™ uw a | te ) 24 390 le ONS 90 RO re) iis ANANIANANN MNO tI AANIANAA — DKK a >= s/f = y ) 90 260 — Zé / > 68 ? 1926 91 289 266 > 6 927 1 1 65 ? 9 290 263 — QIR 19 56 70 ) IR 29 19 260 ? 6 aé 2160 >> 0 4 a/é 9 x uv 6 > afd Q9 7 29 ) >> Zé 1930 l CLi 8S 09Z OFZ PSC ¢SZ 8hZ £hZ 9E7 OS6l tli O87 PLC OFZ 09Z CST SSZ bSZ 6F7 Shz Sez ovel 697 787 $LZ 8h 7SZ FS7Z 9SZ 9SZ OSZ 97 6£7 8h6l C LLZ 897 CSZ LSZ LtZ 8SZ LSZ 1SZ LVC OZ Lvol rl c§ 97 LSZ 997 bSZ C97 6S$7Z CSZ 8ShZ LbZ 9P61 Ll O87 SZ PLT v9 VLE C97 pSZ 692 CV SP6l 9L L8¢ el ISZ 897 997 v97 VLC LZ 097 CST StZ rrél JLC 987 9Li 6S7Z $97 097 L9Z £87 $97 SL7 €LZ 8SZ 8H £h6r 19Z O87 $LZ 097 1LZ 9S7Z OLZ 8872 697 L9T 917 TLZ PSZ crt TLZ TLZ 6L7 6SZ OLZ 197 $97 C67 LLZ PLZ OLT PLZ L97Z 1P6l AYHI9T MOT 6LZ 987 997 8S7Z 097 9SZ TLZ coe P87 P87 087 9LZ OLZ OS6T £L7Z 687 L9Z 97 097 TS7 TLZ ZOE $87 P87 08Z 9L7Z OLZ 6vel 697 T87Z TLZ 8hZ 7S7 PS7 697 o0o¢ £87 P87 08Z 9LZ OLZ Shel SLZ LLZ £LZ 7S7 LSZ L¥Z 997 867 787 P8Z O8Z 917 OLTZ Lvol PLZ 787 L9Z LSZ 997 PSZ 697 £67 6L7 787 6L7 9L7Z OLT 961 TLZ O87 $97 CS7 PLZ $97 £97 $67 PLZ 6LZ LLZ SLZ OLZ SP6l 9L7 18Z €LZ 1SZ 897 997 $97 187 PLZ vl 9LZ SLZ TLZ Prol OLT 987 917 6S7 $97 097 L9Z £87 $97 SLZ £17 PLZ TLZ eter 197 O87 $LZ 097 1LZ 9SZ OLZ 88Z 697 L9Z 917 TLZ OLZ 7v6l \ TLZ TLZ 6LZ 6S7 OLZ 197 $97 767 LLZ bLZ OLZ bLZ L9Z ror AyyHI9q UNIpe|W - 797 787 TLZ 997 097 917 097 887 $8Z P87 8LZ 897 OLZ OF6T Ori CLZ 797 7LZ 197 O8Z 697 987 6LZ 987 18Z 697 8SZ of6l 1SZ LSZ LZ 997 997 18Z TLZ S67 SlZ 6L7 787 TLZ 097 8roel PSZ 8SZ 197 8S7Z 197 987 OLZ 967 787 SLZ PLZ SLZ $97 Leol 1SZ 097 97 697 CS7 087 £LZ $67 1872 18Z 697 697 697 9¢61 LY 8ST L¥Z 097 797 1LZ 997 LOZ LLZ 6L7 PLZ 997 $97 seer LvZ 797 PS7Z 8HZ ¢SZ 787 7SZ £67 O8Z O8Z 8LZ LLZ $97 reel TH 997 8S7Z 7SZ SET £LZ LST $87 €LZ S87 6L O8Z TLZ £e6l 6£7 $97 6SZ 9SZ BET 6S7 PZ 667 797 6L7 S87 787 €L7 ce6t SEZ 997 197 9SZ 6£7 197 S77 16Z TLZ OLZ 087 L87 TLZ l¢e6l SEZ 697 87 ¥SZ 9€7 $97 C77 917 097 787 TLZ 787 PLZ Ofer 6I 81 Li oI SI tI eI ZI II ol 6 8 L 9 Ss eax (spuesnoy ,) *SQNGXL ALIIVLYOW AGNV ALITILYGA AANLNA AO NOILAUWNASSV GAIAINOAdS OL DNIGUODDV ‘OS6T OL O61 ‘I TlddV ‘ADV AO SUVAA AIONIS Ad SALVLS GALINN AHL AO NOILVINdOd OYDAN—9 ATAVL Sources of Information for the Figures I. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Fifteenth Census of the United States: 1930. (Abstract.) Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 1933. p. 80. II. Whelpton, P. K. “Geographic and Economic Differentials in Fertility.’ Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 188: 41: November 1936 III. Independently computed from data in Howard L. Odum’s Southern Regions of } the United States, p. 492, and Vital Statistics—Special Reports, Provisional Natality and Mortality Statistics for 1936, U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. IV. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. Statistical Abstract of United States, 1936. Washington, D. ( Government Printing Office, 1936. p. 95. V. Truesdell, Leon E. Growth of Urban Population in the United States of America U. §. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Washington, D. C.: Govern ment Printing Office, 1937. p. 2. And Truesdell, Leon E. “Trends in Urban Popula tion.” Municipal Year Book. Chicago: International City Managers’ Association, 1937. p. 136. VI. Odum, Howard W. Southern Regions of the United States. Chapel Hill: Univer sity of North Carolina Press, 1936. p. 464 VII. Thompson, W. S., and Whelpton, P. K. Population Trends in the United States. New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co., 1933. p. 109. VIII. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Fifteenth Census of the United States: Population. Vol. V. “Occupations,” p. 345. IX. Odum, Howard W. Southern Regions of the United States. Chapel Hill: Uni versity of North Carolina Press, 1936. p. 58. X. Dublin, Louis I., and Lotka, Alfred J. Twenty-five Years of Health Progress. New York: Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., 1937. p. 35. XI. Data for 1750-1930 from federal census reports. Estimates prepared for the National Resources Committee by Warren S. Thompson and P. K. Whelpton of the Scripps Fovndation for Research in Population Problems XII. U. S. Department of the Interior, Office of Education. Unpublished estimates of child population, 5-17 years, by states, July 1, 1936. National Industrial Conference Board, Inc. Conference Board Bulletin, d pr 1] 19, 1937, p 45 XIII. Weintraub, David. “Unemployment and Increasing Productivity.” Technologi cal Trends and National Policy. National Resources Committee, Subcommittee on Technology. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 1937. p. 70. XIV, XV, and XVI. U. S. Department of the Interior, Office of Education. “Statistical Summary of Education, 1933-34.” Biennial Survey of Education in the United States: 1932-34. Bulletin, 1935, No. 2. Washington, D. C.: Government Printing Office, 1936 Ch. 1, p. 7. Estimates for year 1936 supplied by Office of Education from unpublished tables. [ 57 ] XIII. XIV. XV. XVI. List of Pictorial Figures . Growth of Population . Children under Five Years per 1000 White Women (20-44 Years Old) . Proportion of Total Population and Total Natural Increase by Regions, 1936 ’. Immigration, 1900-1934 . Urbanization of Population VI. VII. VIII. IX. X. XI. XII. Interregional Migration Age Groups Proportion of Children 10-15 Years of Age Gainfully Employed Regional Distribution of Occupational Groups, 1930 Expectation of Life at Birth Trend of Population, 1750-1980 Percent of Nation’s Children and Percent of Nation’s Income in Six Geographic Regions, 1935-1936 Labor Supply and Employment RAAT Elementary Education Enrolment Secondary Education Enrolment Ee Higher Education Enrolment [ 58 J Page / er ee it 3 PUBLICATIONS ON RELATED TOPICS The Outlook for Rural Education. Research Bulletin, Vol. 9, No. 4; Sep- tember 1931.72 p. 25¢. Crime Prevention Through Education. Research Bulletin, Vol. 10, No. 4; September 1932. 68 p. 25¢. Modern Social and Educational Trends. Research Bulletin, Vol. 12, No. 5; November 1934. 48 p. 25¢. Creating Social Intelligence. Research Bulletin, Vol. 13, No. 3; May 1935. 96 p. 50¢. Financing Public Education. Research Bulletin, Vol. 15, No. 1; January 1937. 56 p. 50¢. Federal Support for Education; the Issues and the Facts. Research Bulletin, Vol. 15, No. 4; September 1937. 32 p. 25¢. Implications of Social-Economic Goals for Education. Report of the Com- mittee on Social-Economic Goals of America, 1937. 126 p. 25¢. All orders for publications should be accompanied by funds in payment for same and must be so accompanied when orders for material amount to $1.00 or less. Orders not accompanied by funds in payment are subject to transportation charges. Discounts on quantity orders of the same publication: 2-9 copies, 10 percent; 10-99 copies, 25 percent; 100 or more copies, 33% percent. Make checks or money orders payable to the National Education Association of the United States, 1201 Sixteenth Street, N. W., Washington, Bm Cc. [ 59 ] E are rapidly approaching a decrease in pop- ulation because of a deficiency of births. There is no use blinking these facts. It is not the mere de- cline in numbers that is most serious, at least not until this decline has gone a great way, but rather the evidence that such a decline furnishes of the unwillingness of a growing part of the people to face the realities of racial existence. Reproduction is basic to all human achievement. Indeed, the biologist would say that any civilization which produces a general unwillingness to bear and rear children has by that very fact proved its lack of fitness to survive.—Implications of Social-Eco- nomic Goals for Education, 1937, p. 21, National Education Association.